Abu Dhabi - F1 Prediction League (Round 17)

There you go, the title is won but is it all over? We still have the battle for second in the drivers and constructors championship - if you can look past the fact that few will remember who secured 2nd in 30 years time then there is still a lot left to look forward to this season. The battles down the field have been exciting, just a shame that there is such a strong, consistent winner.

Only one player scored any race points in India - with luck befalling all of the main picked drivers, especially Mark Webber. Well done Rajaram, Grosjean performed excellently.

Three races left means the constructors championship can be wrapped up in Abu Dhabi if Sauber outscore Lotus by 17 points. Overall there is still plenty to be play for, with FIA bonuses going to the top five in the Drivers Championship and the top three in the Constructors Championship.

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:

For a full guide to the 2013 season including stats and other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: F1 Prediction League 2013

Also see the Driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc. There are currently offers for Jasper94, MetalGatherer, Michael and Keba. Please don't be afraid to request a team if you're interested or to make specific demands if you feel you're worth it!

Update on Red Bull #2 contract situation:

The driver with the most conditions fulfilled has the first choice on the #2 contract.
 

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Random Category for Abu Dhabi (The Abu Dhabi Desert Difference)

Which teammates will have the closest qualifying and fastest lap times and which teammates will have the furthest apart?

You can only pick one team/two teammates for closest and furthest apart e.g. closest - Force India, furthest apart - Ferrari. Therefore you'll need to consider how to score the maximum points picking one team for both qualifying and fastest lap.

For both qualifying and fastest lap, points will be scored in line with F1 scores (see below): 

Closest teammates:

Qualifying - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0

Fastest lap - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0

Furthest apart teammates:

Qualifying - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0

Fastest lap - 25/18/15/12/10/8/6/4/2/1/0

This means that the teammates who are closest or furthest away based on time alone will score 25 points, 2nd closest/furthest 18 points etc.

The total score across the four different categories will be added together to get an overall score and compared against other players.

The scoring system works as follows:

Best picker: 3 points
2nd and 3rd: 2 points
4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Ties will be dealt with on a countback method (most 25 points, most 18 points). If there is no way to distinguish, time of posting will be used.

Note 1: Retired drivers will not be counted in fastest lap (will score you 0 points), therefore it is not beneficial to select a driver who is highly likely to retire and have a huge fastest lap difference to their teammate.

Note 2: if there is an overall tie on weekend points and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on actual random scores (i.e. the total score across all four categories).

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Reminder: No Vettel race picks and no Red Bull constructors picks. Unfortunately Vettel is still allowed as a qualifying pick given the rules set down before Japan - see comments in the India race thread.

Post your picks in the following format -

Qualifying:

Race:
Constructors:
Random:-

Team 1 [Closest]
Team 2 [Furthest apart]

The deadline for Abu Dhabi picks is Friday 1st November 09:00 GMT (before FP1). 

Good luck and may the best picker win! If anyone's worried about block picking, please email me with your picks here. Then I can post your picks during FP1 when possible. Same rules apply as usual, after you've made your picks you'll have a very small window to correct (1 hour) and then they're set in stone.

I'll always attempt to pick fairly early, given my position in the championship always good to avoid any suspicions!

India Results and Championship Standings (16/19)

Congratulations to Rajaram on an excellent win - an inspired Grosjean pick sealed the deal for the weekend! Unlucky for Webber pickers, Webber was clearly the best pick so people who picked him can feel hard done by.

The championship is looking much the same as before with the majority of players scoring 11 to 14. In the next race, if Sauber score 17 more points than Lotus in the constructors championship it will be over, which will delight Peter Sauber no end.

The battle for the second Red Bull seat heats up with Keba taking the initiative, well done.

Here are the current standings:

Constructors Championship

For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Rajaram will score 25 points for his 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).

The podium was as follows (see post for further results)

India - F1 Prediction League (Round 16)

The title wasn't wrapped up in Japan, as expected, however it's definitely a matter of time. Realistically only a Vettel retirement will stop the crowning of F1's youngest four-time world champion. Few would bet against Vettel achieving a tame fifth place, especially as all fourteen finishes have achieved top four positions.

The ban of Vettel from race and Red Bull from constructors created a variety of strategies in Japan. This was true across both categories with votes split pretty equally between Hamilton (0pts), Alonso (2pts), Raikkonen (1pt) and Webber (8pts) and Lotus (6pts), Mercedes (0pts) and Ferrari (1pt). Webber and Lotus pickers prevailed while Hamilton and Mercedes pickers hit rock-bottom with no score.

The retirement of Hamilton may have crucial ramifications on the title race. Going into the final four races, Kiszol now finds himself ideally placed to launch an attack on the top two positions. Dead Jedi also impressively won his second race in three outings, moving up to seventh place. At this stage of the championship, the stakes are raised and mistakes are amplified; Title contenders Lotus need to respond quickly, in the constructors championship, as do Kim and Kiszol before its too late.

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:

For a full guide to the 2013 season including stats and other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: F1 Prediction League 2013

I have updated the statistics so they are now complete.

Also see the driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc. There are currently offers for Jasper94, MetalGatherer, Michael and Keba. Please don't be afraid to request a team if you're interested or to make specific demands if you feel you're worth it!

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Random Category for India (Indian Improver)

Which teams will improve the most between the following sessions?

Category 1: Practice 1 and Practice 2

Category 2: Practice 2 and Practice 3

Category 3: Practice 3 and Qualifying

Category 4: Qualifying and Race

There are no restrictions on picks, so any of the eleven teams can be picked for any of the four different categories. This allows you to repeat a team for several categories, although I wouldn't recommend picking the same team every time!

The positions of both drivers will be added together e.g. 

P1 - Alonso 8th, Massa 10th = 18 points

P2 - Alonso 7th, Massa 5th = 12 points

Net improvement/(loss) for category 1 = 6 points.

The scores will be totalled across the four categories to reach an overall score.

Note 1: Any driver who retires in the race will be disqualified from category 4 and will score the picker 0 points (no improvement, no loss).

If players finish on the same amount of points, ties will be resolved by giving the place to the player with the highest score in their best category (then 2nd best score if the tie still remains etc.) If this method does not distinguish between the pickers then the player who picked first will finish ahead.

The scoring system works as follows:

Best picker: 3 points

2nd and 3rd: 2 points

4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note 2: if there is an overall tie on weekend points and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on actual random scores (i.e. the total score across all four categories).

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Post your picks in the following format -

Qualifying:

Race:

Constructors:

Random:-

1:

2:

3:

4:

The deadline for India picks is Friday 25th October 05:30 GMT (before FP1). 

Good luck and may the best picker win! If anyone's worried about block picking, please email me with your picks here. Then I can post your picks during FP1 when possible. Same rules apply as usual, after you've made your picks you'll have a very small window to correct (1 hour) and then they're set in stone.

I'll always attempt to pick fairly early, given my position in the championship always good to avoid any suspicions!

Japan Results and Championship Standings (15/19)

Congratulations to Dead Jedi for another win, his second of the season! Since the half way point of the season Dead Jedi's form has sky rocketed with four podiums in seven races.

There's been a huge shake-up between positions 3 and 9. In particular Kiszol who had a very strong race and is now within striking distance of first and second positions.

Also with Kiszol's strong form, Sauber are moving closer to the constructors championship; with only 4 races left a 55 point lead in the championship is looking fairly sturdy. As a result of a race win and top five finish Force India have jumped into a vital third place in the constructors championship. Fans will be happy especially approaching Force India's home GP next time out!

Here are the current standings:

Constructors Championship

For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Dead Jedi will score 25 points for his 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).

The podium was as follows (see post for further results)

Round-up of Japan picks 2013

As always, it's interesting to compare who everyone has picked particularly if it might influence your championship position. So here it goes, here's everyone's Japan picks.

See the Japan picking thread: (http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/japan-f1-prediction-league-round-15.html)

As before Vettel has had a strong contingent of pickers in his only available category (qualifying), taking 11 of 14 picks. In the race Hamilton turned out as the most predicted pick, interestingly with 5 of the top 7 choosing him. The remaining players split their picks evenly between Webber, Alonso and Raikkonen. Finally in constructors, it was close between Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari with the former two edging picks (5-5-4). As expected no other teams got a look in.

With the new bans, we've clearly got a lot more variety which is great to see!

Qualifying

 

Read on for race, constructors and random splits.

Japan - F1 Prediction League (Round 15)

Last time Vettel won the championship in Japan

Here we are again, Japan - back again in that familiar position where a Vettel win might end the championship. Such has been the measure of his season, that an eighth win in Korea brings his win percentage for a season equal fourth (since 1965) behind only himself (2011) and his fellow German Michael Schumacher (2002 and 2004).

Thanks to everyone for their contributions in the last thread about their Vettel banning preferences. After weighing up everyone's votes and comments, I've decided that banning Vettel for race and Red Bull for constructors is the best option. There isn't quite enough evidence to ban Vettel from qualifying yet and many expressed concerns about the ban due to Hamilton's qualifying strength. 

The F1 prediction league season is coming towards the real crunch time, we should see a lot of variety for both race and constructors. Could Raikkonen, Hamilton, Alonso, Grosjean, Rosberg or Webber be the highest scorer? Equally Lotus, Mercedes and Ferrari seem well matched for constructors. I'm looking forward to seeing who everyone picks!

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:

 

For other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/p/blog-page.html

Also see the driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc.

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Random Category for Japan

Where will the following drivers qualify and finish the race?

 

Esteban Gutiérrez

Jean-Éric Vergne

Nico Rosberg

 

The scoring system works as follows:

 

Correct pick       8 points

+ or - 1 place     5 points

+ or - 2               3 points

+ or - 3               2 points

+ or - 4               1 point

+ or - 5 or over   0 points 

 

If a driver retires, no one will score any points for that driver's race pick.

 

If players are tied on overall points, the decision will be made on countback (i.e. most 8 point scores, most 5 point scores etc.). If players are tied in all categories, time of posting will be the decider.

Points will be allocated on the following basis:

Best picker: 3 points

2nd and 3rd: 2 points

4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note: if there is an overall tie on weekend points (qualifying, race, constructors and random) and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on random score (the number out of 48). Usually the next decider is on time posted but if there is a tie overall random will be more important in deciding what points to allocate.

 

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Post your picks in the following format -

Qualifying:

Race:

Constructors:

Random: 

Esteban Gutiérrez (   ,   )

Jean-Éric Vergne (   ,   )

Nico Rosberg (   ,  )

The deadline for Suzuka picks is Friday 11th October 02:00 GMT (before FP1). Effectively pick on Thursday to be safe.

Good luck!

Korea Results and Championship Standings (14/19)

Congratulations to Sangan on an incredible weekend! At one point it looked like an almost certain 25 points with Red Bull looking good for constructors and an almost certain win with the random category, however Webber's retirement changed that. Sangan scored 30/30 points for random, meaning ten exactly correct predictions, which is up there with the greatest achievements in the F1 prediction league.

Also an honorary mention to our new picker Keba, who finished in the points and had a successful debut. They've been assigned a place at the Red Bull team for the rest season because of the absence of Wander.

In general this race was pretty successful with pickers as it overtakes Singapore (225) and Spa (212) as the highest points scoring race, with 238 points. Obviously this is a sign that the increasing popularity and dominance of Vettel means a change has to happen for the sake of the league.

After considering player preference and transparency the following will be imposed from the weekend of Japan - Suzuka (11-13th October 2013)

No Vettel race picks
No Red Bull constructors picks

Please read to the bottom of this article for further reasoning.

Here are the current standings:

Constructors Championship

For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Sangan will score 25 points for his 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).

The podium was as follows (see post for further results)

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Round-up of Korea picks 2013

This is a round-up of the Korea picks. This thread has been absent in the last few races but I always think it's interesting so I'm posting this here now. 

See the Korea picking thread: (http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/korea-f1-prediction-league-round-14.html) 

As expected a Vettel dominance has been predicted. The only saving grace for this race is Mark Webber's penalty which makes the constructors battle a far more tight affair. With so many different choices between Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes many drivers are at least going to gain 5 points over another group of pickers.

Qualifying

 

Race

 

Constructors

 

Random 

 

Korea - F1 Prediction League (Round 14)

Korea is usually a Vettel stronghold with victories in the last two years, as well as leading the vast majority of the race in 2010. Only a mechanical failure denied him a win which would have earned him the title earlier in the season.

There are two major decision points for this thread, the first is the more complicated random category. This is to make up for the potential predictability of the other three categories. The random category will also be more important in deciding constructors points (replacing time posted as the fifth decider). The second main point is the Vettel ban situation, please read through the thread and post your preference with your picks.

Hopefully we can work out the best solution for everyone. I look forward to hearing your input.

 

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:
 

 

 

 

For other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/p/blog-page.html

Also see the driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc.

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Random Category for Korea

Which drivers will be the fastest and slowest in the following sessions?

  

As stated pick the driver who will set the fastest lap in the listed session as well as the driver who will set the slowest fastest lap in that session. 

 

3 points will be awarded for a correct pick, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd and 0 points for last. Therefore the highest possible score is 30 points (scoring 2 sets of 3 points for all five 5 categories)

 

e.g.

 

If my picks for practice 1 are: fastest - Van der Garde, slowest - Pic, if the order is actually Pic, Van der Garde, Chilton, Bianchi. I will score 2 points for Van der Garde (as he is second quickest) and 0 points for Pic (as he was the fastest in the session where I predicted he would be the slowest).

 

If players are tied on overall points, the decision will be made on countback (i.e. most correct picks, then most 2nds etc.). If players are tied in all categories, time of posting will be the decider.

 

Points will be allocated on the following basis:

 

Best picker: 3 points

2nd and 3rd: 2 points

4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note: if there is an overall tie on weekend points (qualifying, race, constructors and random) and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on random score (the number out of 30). Usually the next decider is on time posted but if there is a tie overall random will be more important in deciding what points to allocate.

 

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Ban Vettel? (please read and vote)

 

First off, I want to post statistics with Vettel and without Vettel. I want to focus on the last five races as this was when the tyre change came into play in Hungary. Since then the championship has heavily gone towards both Vettel and Red Bull.

 

Qualifying

 

 

The last five races are the crucial measure. In qualifying Vettel tops the tables as you would expect.  It's worth pointing out that Vettel's dominance would be even stronger had he not made a mistake on his fastest Hungary lap and if it hadn't rained in Belgium/Spa, gifting Hamilton a chance at pole which he didn't have in the dry. If these two results had happened the other way around Vettel's 6 point lead extends to an 18 point advantage over five races. It does seem that Hamilton wields a healthy advantage over the other drivers with Vettel in though.

The advantage is a bit less clear when Vettel is taken out. Mark Webber's biggest competitor is his teammate, he's 13-0 down in qualifying. Against other competitors Webber is far stronger which means he's a lot closer to Hamilton with Vettel removed. With the resurgence of Red Bull (and their obvious superiority at most tracks), qualifying as a category is, in my opinion, more competitive without Vettel in than with him in. Vettel seemed to have a 0.4-0.8 second advantage in qualifying trim over other cars in Monza and Singapore. Perhaps my opinion will change if Hamilton out-qualifies Vettel in Korea however I personally feel that is pretty unlikely.

 

Race

 

Vettel has been absolutely dominant in the last five races as well as over the course of the season, scoring 94% and 51% more points respectively than his nearest competitor Alonso. Excluding Vettel will obviously make this category more unpredictable and exciting. This is especially true as Alonso rarely seems to finish second from high up on the grid. He was also lucky in races such as Singapore with the safety car.

Without Vettel Alonso's superiority is further emphasised due to his numerous second places. As above it's worth pointing out that these results are skewed due to his strong result in Singapore which was rather lucky. He was probably going to be behind Grosjean, Hamilton and Rosberg at least without the safety car. Obviously again there are four pretty likely picks if we exclude Vettel, arguably only one logical pick if we keep him in.

 

Constructors

Red Bull have been utterly dominant in the last five races, scoring over 118% more points than Ferrari. This to me means it's advisable to ban Red Bull as well if we're considering banning Vettel due to his strength. The points for Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus are all close especially if we consider how lucky Ferrari were in Singapore due to the safety car and Webber's retirement.

 

Overall I believe we should ban all Vettel and Red Bull picks unless specifically allowed in random. I've given the raw stats above. Everyone is allowed their own opinion so please feel free to make your own suggestions/comments.

 

With your own post please post your most favoured solution to least favoured solution:

 

Ban Vettel from Race

Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race

Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors

No Ban

Other Ban - please explain and give reason (only relevant if you have an alternative option)

 

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Post your picks in the following format -
 

Qualifying: 

Race:

Constructors:

Random:
P1: (fastest), (slowest)
P2:
P3:
Q:
R:

Ban Vettel? (see above for five potential options)
- Most favoured option
- 2nd most favoured option
- 3rd most favoured option
- 4th most favoured option
- 5th most favoured option (if relevant)
 

Please feel free to give your reasons why you've made your Vettel decision as well, it may persuade other players to see your side of the story. We'll then try to work out the most effective compromise for everyone.

 

The deadline for Korea picks is Friday 4th October 02:00 GMT (before FP1). Effectively pick on Thursday to be safe.

 

Good luck!