Korea - F1 Prediction League (Round 14)

Korea is usually a Vettel stronghold with victories in the last two years, as well as leading the vast majority of the race in 2010. Only a mechanical failure denied him a win which would have earned him the title earlier in the season.

There are two major decision points for this thread, the first is the more complicated random category. This is to make up for the potential predictability of the other three categories. The random category will also be more important in deciding constructors points (replacing time posted as the fifth decider). The second main point is the Vettel ban situation, please read through the thread and post your preference with your picks.

Hopefully we can work out the best solution for everyone. I look forward to hearing your input.

 

To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:
 

 

 

 

For other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/p/blog-page.html

Also see the driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc.

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Random Category for Korea

Which drivers will be the fastest and slowest in the following sessions?

  

As stated pick the driver who will set the fastest lap in the listed session as well as the driver who will set the slowest fastest lap in that session. 

 

3 points will be awarded for a correct pick, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd and 0 points for last. Therefore the highest possible score is 30 points (scoring 2 sets of 3 points for all five 5 categories)

 

e.g.

 

If my picks for practice 1 are: fastest - Van der Garde, slowest - Pic, if the order is actually Pic, Van der Garde, Chilton, Bianchi. I will score 2 points for Van der Garde (as he is second quickest) and 0 points for Pic (as he was the fastest in the session where I predicted he would be the slowest).

 

If players are tied on overall points, the decision will be made on countback (i.e. most correct picks, then most 2nds etc.). If players are tied in all categories, time of posting will be the decider.

 

Points will be allocated on the following basis:

 

Best picker: 3 points

2nd and 3rd: 2 points

4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note: if there is an overall tie on weekend points (qualifying, race, constructors and random) and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on random score (the number out of 30). Usually the next decider is on time posted but if there is a tie overall random will be more important in deciding what points to allocate.

 

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Ban Vettel? (please read and vote)

 

First off, I want to post statistics with Vettel and without Vettel. I want to focus on the last five races as this was when the tyre change came into play in Hungary. Since then the championship has heavily gone towards both Vettel and Red Bull.

 

Qualifying

 

 

The last five races are the crucial measure. In qualifying Vettel tops the tables as you would expect.  It's worth pointing out that Vettel's dominance would be even stronger had he not made a mistake on his fastest Hungary lap and if it hadn't rained in Belgium/Spa, gifting Hamilton a chance at pole which he didn't have in the dry. If these two results had happened the other way around Vettel's 6 point lead extends to an 18 point advantage over five races. It does seem that Hamilton wields a healthy advantage over the other drivers with Vettel in though.

The advantage is a bit less clear when Vettel is taken out. Mark Webber's biggest competitor is his teammate, he's 13-0 down in qualifying. Against other competitors Webber is far stronger which means he's a lot closer to Hamilton with Vettel removed. With the resurgence of Red Bull (and their obvious superiority at most tracks), qualifying as a category is, in my opinion, more competitive without Vettel in than with him in. Vettel seemed to have a 0.4-0.8 second advantage in qualifying trim over other cars in Monza and Singapore. Perhaps my opinion will change if Hamilton out-qualifies Vettel in Korea however I personally feel that is pretty unlikely.

 

Race

 

Vettel has been absolutely dominant in the last five races as well as over the course of the season, scoring 94% and 51% more points respectively than his nearest competitor Alonso. Excluding Vettel will obviously make this category more unpredictable and exciting. This is especially true as Alonso rarely seems to finish second from high up on the grid. He was also lucky in races such as Singapore with the safety car.

Without Vettel Alonso's superiority is further emphasised due to his numerous second places. As above it's worth pointing out that these results are skewed due to his strong result in Singapore which was rather lucky. He was probably going to be behind Grosjean, Hamilton and Rosberg at least without the safety car. Obviously again there are four pretty likely picks if we exclude Vettel, arguably only one logical pick if we keep him in.

 

Constructors

Red Bull have been utterly dominant in the last five races, scoring over 118% more points than Ferrari. This to me means it's advisable to ban Red Bull as well if we're considering banning Vettel due to his strength. The points for Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus are all close especially if we consider how lucky Ferrari were in Singapore due to the safety car and Webber's retirement.

 

Overall I believe we should ban all Vettel and Red Bull picks unless specifically allowed in random. I've given the raw stats above. Everyone is allowed their own opinion so please feel free to make your own suggestions/comments.

 

With your own post please post your most favoured solution to least favoured solution:

 

Ban Vettel from Race

Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race

Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors

No Ban

Other Ban - please explain and give reason (only relevant if you have an alternative option)

 

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Post your picks in the following format -
 

Qualifying: 

Race:

Constructors:

Random:
P1: (fastest), (slowest)
P2:
P3:
Q:
R:

Ban Vettel? (see above for five potential options)
- Most favoured option
- 2nd most favoured option
- 3rd most favoured option
- 4th most favoured option
- 5th most favoured option (if relevant)
 

Please feel free to give your reasons why you've made your Vettel decision as well, it may persuade other players to see your side of the story. We'll then try to work out the most effective compromise for everyone.

 

The deadline for Korea picks is Friday 4th October 02:00 GMT (before FP1). Effectively pick on Thursday to be safe.

 

Good luck!