Welcome to our first (and hopefully not last) Friday
analysis. There are a few reasons behind us two F1 nuts trying this out;
1) A
lack of decent analysis out there for interested F1 folk like ourselves
2) The
better stuff is subscriber only (like Gary Anderson’s Autosport analysis, which
itself still has a few errors)
3) We figured it would be fun.
Although we could
hardly call ourselves Formula One experts (though we will allow others to do
so), we’re both long-standing fans of the sport, and we’ve been analysing
Friday practice all year – not least because we’re both betting
men...
We’ve focused largely on Free Practice 2, as this is where
all teams do both a qualifying simulation and a race simulation. Free Practice
1 is harder to draw conclusions from, as the programmes and fuel loads the
teams run are more inconsistent. As well as looking at pure lap times, we’ve
taken into consideration issues like traffic, tyre degradation, media snippets
from the drivers, and also the patterns we tend to see from Friday across to
the rest of the weekend in previous races. So that’s the context, now let’s get
stuck in!
Jubilant Germany
welcomes the return of Formula One
An eventful Friday at the Hockenheimring saw Formula one
return to Germany; a country still wrapped in the throes of celebration, having
recently proved themselves to be more capable at kicking an inflatable ball
around than any other nation on the planet. This may explain the rare sight in
2014 of Sebastian Vettel in a cheery mood, although as we’ll see below, his
less experienced teammate is giving him more headaches in front of his home
fans.
Today yielded some particularly interesting questions, such
as how the banning of FRIC (front and rear interconnected systems suspension)
would affect the pecking order, whether Susie Wolff could show that female
drivers have the pace to succeed in F1, and which of the two big Championship
rivals has the edge in what could be a decisive weekend. So let’s take a look at what the FRIC (sorry,
but we couldn’t miss out on the pun bandwagon) the story from Friday at
Hockenheim looks like.
Analysis: Who looks
good?
The first thing to say is that it was a challenging day to
analyse, due to a combination of traffic and the F1 timing app once again
failing to tell us who was on what tyre at what time in the session – come on
Bernie! We had to rely on what we saw on the TV screen, and this meant that we
didn’t see much of the smaller teams. Nonetheless, there are some clear
patterns emerging.
One lap pace
The headline lap times (Figure 1) appear to show a familiar
story, with Mercedes 1-2 out in front. However, a confident Ricciardo
was nipping (wolfishly?) at their heels, suggesting qualifying could see a
repeat of Austria with the Mercs being pushed very hard – although this time by
Red Bull rather than Williams. McLaren continue to look pretty handy over one
lap, and Ferrari also look decent – Alonso made an error in sector three and
will surely find more pace compared to Raikkonen. Williams appear to be
struggling, although we would guard against reading too much in to that, as
they tend to hide their true pace on a Friday more than most teams. Ferrari on
the other hand tend to flatter on a Friday, so don’t be surprised if they find
themselves fourth best come qualifying. Behind them Sutil was a surprise in 11th,
and the Force Indias continue to struggle to show their full pace in qualifying
trim. Lotus continue to flounder.
In terms of teammate battles, it was mega tight between the
two Mercedes boys. Neither nailed their lap with Hamilton getting traffic in
Sector 3, and Rosberg making an error on his first flying lap, meaning his
tyres were past their best when he did set his lap time. Ricciardo once again
appears to have the edge on Vettel.
Figure 1: Fastest theoretical lap times, consisting of the
driver’s best sectors. Thanks to the McLaren
fan site for this!
Race pace
We’ve looked separately at runs on the soft and the
supersoft tyre, as each had a different story to tell.
Figure 2: Long run lap times on supersoft tyre – we’ve taken
the drivers with the most representative stints for each team, and both of the
Mercedes drivers
The Mercedes again look to have the edge here by at least a
couple of tenths, with Rosberg looking particularly strong, although Hamilton
became stronger throughout his stint. Ricciardo stands out as best of the
rest with a very positive Sergio Perez next. Williams were struggling, but again they tend to gain with respect to
other teams after a Friday. McLaren were unable to match their qualifying pace
with long run pace, which has been the case a few times this year. Jenson
Button was quick to point out the cars difficulty with the supersoft tyre after
the practice session.
What also stands out here is the severe tyre degredation on
the supersoft, with times dropping off dramatically after as little as six
laps. Ricciardo and the Mercedes managed them better, with Ricciardo making
them last for around twenty laps (across several stints). Vettel had good pace
compared to Ricciardo, but saw a more severe drop off. Expect to see the top
teams pitting early in the race and having to make their way past cars running
longer on the prime tyre.
Figure 3: Long run lap times on the soft tyre
Again there are three drivers here who stand out for both
pace and consistency – Rosberg, Hamilton and Ricciardo. Vettel started quickly,
but again seemed to be hurting his tyres – after his first six laps or so he
was around a second a lap slower than Ricciardo. Alonso doesn’t look to have
the pace to keep up with the Red Bulls and the Mercedes, especially given the
tendency of the Ferrari to overperform on a Friday.
As we said, we have stayed away from the smaller teams due
to the difficulty in determining tyres, but it was pretty clear that the
Caterham still has its canine properties, and the only way that car could look
more freakish is if it turned up to the circuit dressed in a lederhosen.
Conclusions
It looks like another great battle between the two Mercedes
drivers for pole and the win, with Rosberg appearing to have a slight edge at
this stage of the weekend. Ricciardo looks comfortably best of the rest, and is
hot favourite for the final podium spot. Behind him Vettel looks strong, but then
the picture is a bit murkier. Williams will definitely improve, but they were
chewing through their tyres faster than a hungry mouse through cheddar, so
could have a tough race. Alonso will once again be up there challenging for 5th
to 7th, and expect to see Force India coming through strongly later in
the race due to their tyre whispering car, whilst McLaren (who also tend to
flatter on Fridays) will probably drop backwards.
One of the biggest factors today and potentially for the
rest of the weekend is the extreme heat, which made the supersoft tyres fall
away like a tasty soft French cheese, particularly for some teams (Williams,
Sauber). This could be a challenge in the race, pushing out the tyre strategy
to perhaps even three stops for some teams. It may also create reliability
issues, and Rosberg’s steaming hot brakes in Practice 2 brought to mind
memories of Canada.
Other potential threats to Merc is the removal of FRIC which caused set-up issues.
The threat of rain still hangs over the circuit for race
day, with rain forecast at 60% likely, and mostly focused around race time. Not
since Brazil 2012 have we had a proper wet race, and it would something
incredible to watch with the 2014 cars with their high torque and lower
downforce. Wet weather would create a big unknown, but based on wet qualifying
sessions we would expect the gap between Mercedes and Red Bull to lessen, and
those two cars to pull away even further from the rest.
Quick tips
Ricciardo to qualify top 3 @ 2.5 with Bwin
Qualifying winning margin under 0.15 seconds @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes
Spotted: A Wolff in
the Formula One pack
It was terrific to see Susie Wolff complete a full Practice
session, after the howler that she had in Silverstone with her car grinding to
a miserable halt on her second timed lap. She put in some impressive times,
consistently staying within half a second of Massa.
It was clear to us that
Susie was enjoying herself, as she was in such a hurry to get back on track
that she even
set the fastest time through the pitlane speed trap – twice! A $2,000
speeding fine would probably put a spoiler on our day, but we’re sure that the
Williams F1 team can afford it. We hope to see Susie back in a Formula One car,
not least because of the sheer multitude of pun opportunities that her surname
presents. Still, our favourite this year has to be, “Ok Lewis, it’s
hammertime.”
And with that we bid you auf wiedersehen. Enjoy the weekend!
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