United States GP 2014 - F1 Prediction League

Sorry for the delay (I've been travelling on business), thanks to Nat for his contribution to this thread.

Welcome to the US of A for the 17^th Grand Prix of a terrific 2014 season. With the title fight going down to the wire and Nico Rosberg desperately needing a win to grab the momentum back off the hard-charging Lewis Hamilton, this weekend could be huge – like everything else in the USA, particularly their burgers.

Less huge will be the Formula One grid this weekend, with both the financially troubled minnows of the sport, Marussia and Caterham, missing the Grand Prix. The news about Marussia was something of a surprise, although Caterham’s cash problems (and ownership issues) have been well-documented in recent months, including an astonishing story that all kinds of key equipment (simulators, development parts and so forth) was to be auctioned off. It prompted this amusing article on the satirical site Sniff Petrol suggesting that Kamui Kobayashi may be the next to be auctioned off.                                                  

It will be a shame to see just 18 cars on the grid this weekend – the lowest since 2005 – and the latest development in what has been a tough month for the sport with Bianchi’s accident in Japan. Bianchi is now a in stable condition, but there’s still a long way to go – our thoughts and wishes are with him.

On the Prediction League front last weekend proved fairly dramatic, with changes at the top of both the Constructors and main Prediction League following Red Bull’s disastrous performance around the Sochi Autodrom. There’s still plenty to play for with both titles remaining closely fought, as they have done all season, and people fighting to retain their seat – or grab a nice shiny new one. Marussia's plunge into administration has huge implications for the PL but Ross Brawn (Team Principal) has convinced Bernie to support him for three more races, before he goes fishing again. Who will come out on top this weekend?

The current championship standings are:

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Random

Thanks to everyone who has helped so far on random this year - please feel free to post suggestions here for other races. 

Back in the fight

A win for Hamilton this weekend means that, barring retirements (oooh errr), Rosberg could win the final two weekends and it still wouldn’t be enough to take the title from the Brit. Hamilton has never been outqualified or outraced by a teammate here in Austin, giving Rosberg a trouncing last year. How well will he fight back this weekend?

How many sessions will Rosberg beat Hamilton in this weekend (FP1, FP2, FP3, Q, R)?

Correct 3 pts
1-2 away 2 pts
3-4 away 1 pt

Pick a combination of statements from the following (note that all statements you choose have to be correct in order to gain points):
Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions 1 pt
Hamilton to beat Rosberg in every free practice session 2 pts
Rosberg to beat Hamilton in two of the three practice sessions 2 pts
Rosberg to beat Hamilton in every free practice session 4 pts
Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg 1 pt
Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg by at least 0.2s 2pts
Rosberg will outqualify Hamilton 3 pts
Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts
Rosberg will beat Hamilton in the race 3pts
 (In the event of a race retirement that is clearly not the fault of the driver, statements will be taken to be correct at time of retirement as long as at least half laps have been completed e.g. if Hamilton is ahead of Rosberg by over 8 seconds and Hamilton retires  on lap 40 then the statement that Hamilton will beat Rosberg by 5+ seconds in the race will be deemed correct. If the driver takes themselves out of the race/qualifying then they will be deemed to have been beaten by their teammate by the maximum margin. A retirement issue in qualifying will not invalidate race result and vice versa. Bit convoluted but hopefully you trust our judgement!)

Note: stacking statements will not receive extra points. For example in the case of Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg by at least 0.2s, you will receive two points for predicting this correct. Picking Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg will not earn you any additional points. The more extreme pick will always take precedent so if it's incorrect you'll score 0 points in the whole category.

Super Sebastian

This time last year Vettel was heading into the Austin Grand Prix about to win his 8^th consecutive race. This year he finds himself starting from the pitlane, over 50 points down on his teammate and daydreaming about driving a red car.
What can he salvage from this weekend? We’re going to have some fun guessing how far he can charge through the depleted field. Pick two statements from the following (points if correct in brackets)

Super Seb will beat both Lotus and Sauber cars (1)
Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos (2)
Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
Super Seb will beat a Williams on merit i.e. not because of the Williams’ problems (5)
(Retirement rules are as follows: If Vettel retires in the first half of the reason no points awarded. If he retires in the second half then half points are awarded for the statements correct at the time of retirement. Retirements for the other cars mean Seb 'beats' them (except for the Williams pick) unless Seb is behind them with over 75% race distance complete.)

How many positions will Seb finish behind Dan in the race?

0-1 away from being correct (5)
2-3 away (4)
4-5 away (3)
6-7 away (2)
8-9 away (1)

Bringing up the rear

The depleted grid means that Lotus and Sauber find themselves in the unfamiliar position of fighting not to finish last. For some perspective, last year Lotus last year managed to get a 2^nd (Grosjean) and Sauber 6^th (Hulkenberg).

Who will qualify last?

Maldonado 1 pt
Grosjean 2 pts
Sutil 2 pts
Gutierrez 3 pts
Any other 5 pts
(Note that it has to be a classified time, not taking part in qualifying does not count towards this)

Who will finish last in the race? (the lowest driver not to retire)

Maldonado 1 pt
Grosjean 2 pts
Sutil 2 pts
Gutierrez 2 pts
Other 3 pts

How many seconds will the highest finishing Lotus or Sauber finish behind the next car? (This will also act as a tie-break, closest guess first).

0-5 seconds away 3 pts
5-15 seconds away 2 pts
15-25 1 pt
(if there’s a safety car in the last 10 laps then it will be the time gap taken on the final lap before the safety car came out)


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Template

Hamilton, Rosberg and Mercedes banned.

Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors: 
Random:
Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
1) X/5 sessions
2) [list out all statements thought to be true]
Vettel (Super Sebastian)
1) [Pick two statements]
2) X number of places behind Dan
Bringing up the rear
1) X will qualify last
2) X will finish the race last
3) X seconds (also a TB)

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As always picks are due before Free Practice 1 which is 1600 GMT/1000 Local time.