Entering the Lair of the Honey Badger: How Will Kvyat Stack Up Against Ricciardo in 2015?

In amongst the understandable excitement that surrounded two of F1’s biggest name drivers playing musical seats, the story of the dominant team of recent years signing a relatively unproven rookie was rather neglected. 

Red Bull’s rather bizarre urgency to confirm that Daniil Kvyat (pictured on the right) would be replacing the departing Sebastian Vettel made one wonder if there was a risk that if the seat was left open for more than 24 hours that Pastor Maldonado would jump in it. 

Kvyat’s promotion to the senior team is in line with Red Bull’s policy of selecting drivers only from their Young Drivers Programme, which they have invested heavily in and which has borne some impressive results in the form of Vettel, Ricciardo and rising stars Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz Jr. Kvyat’s promotion did little to improve the mood of Jean-Eric Vergne, who looked understandably p*ssed off ever since he was told ‘merci for the memories Jean-Eric’ by Toro Rosso (although there's a chance he may retain his seat). 

So were Red Bull right to promote Kvyat? And how will he get on against the all-conquering Daniel Ricciardo?

To find some answers, we’re going to use JEV as a benchmark, and compare him against both Ricciardo and Kvyat to gauge the young Russian’s abilities. We’ll look at qualifying, race performance and key moments from the Russian’s fledgling F1 career. A couple of caveats we’ve kept in mind are:

a) Kvyat is up against a more experienced and, it’s safe to assume we feel, improved JEV compared to the driver that Ricciardo faced.

b) Unlike Kvyat, Ricciardo was not a complete rookie when he joined Toro Rosso, having enjoyed half a season in the mighty HRT.

Both of the above obviously advantage Ricciardo. Another point is that Ricciardo and Vergne competed under a previous set of regulations, and we don’t know how well each has adapted to the 2014 regs relative to each other, so that puts a question mark over the comparisons. 

Qualifying

 

* average time difference only applies to dry sessions, and their last comparable time. If one driver exits in Q1 track evolution may give a misleading comparison.

In their two years together, Ricciardo amassed a staggering 27-4 dry qualifying head to head record against Vergne (4-4 in wet qualifying). In their first season together Dan was, on average, 0.314 seconds per lap quicker in dry qualifying across the year, which improved to 0.428 seconds in 2013. 

In comparison, Kvyat this year (as of the Russian GP) leads Vergne 9-4 in dry qualifying (Vergne is ahead 3-2 in the wet). On average, he is 0.156 seconds per lap quicker than Vergne in the dry this season.

A couple of conclusions jump out here, one of which is that Ricciardo is an exceptionally strong qualifier, as has become increasingly evident this season as he has outqualified Vettel 10-7 (8-4 in the dry). On raw data alone, it appears that over one lap Ricciardo has a fairly significant advantage - 2-3 tenths on average over Kvyat. However, accounting for our two important caveats above we can see a much closer picture. We feel that the JEV of 2014 is likely to be slightly quicker per lap than in 2012, and when this is taken into account there’s not much between Ricciardo and Kvyat in qualifying pace based on their rookie Toro Rosso year. It should be noted that overall Ricciardo does seem quicker especially off the back of the 2013 year. 

Interestingly Kvyat seems to be getting on top of his battle with Vergne towards the end of 2014 with three significant performances in Russia, United States and Brazil (see below).

Time difference in qualifying between JEV and Ricciardo/Kvyat in dry qualifying sessions. Ricciardo denoted by the blue diamond (2012) and the red square (2013). Kvyat is the green triangle (2014). Any shapes above the middle line indicate that JEV outqualified Ricciardo/Kvyat, shapes below are the opposite. This is a useful comparison which helps to compare abilities on different tracks.

Race

* results have been counted at the point where either driver retired, unless the leading driver caused their own retirement through collision damage. This is counted as a loss. Where there is significant doubt about the result or one driver is handicapped from the 1st lap results are not counted.

For race performance analysis we’re more interested in head to head record than points tally. Points rarely paint the whole picture (and sometimes present completely the wrong one), especially in a smaller team where one strong finish could skew the results. A good example is Vergne’s 6^that this season’s Singapore GP. Whilst an impressive drive, Vergne benefitted from a number of quicker drivers running into issues (Button, Rosberg, Bottas, Raikkonen) and also a safety car that played into his hands.

Unsurprisingly, Ricciardo’s qualifying dominance gave him an edge on race day, and in 2 car finishes he led Vergne 8-7 in head to head in 2012, which improved to 6-3 in 2013. Although Dan’s superior head to head record translated into a 20-13 points advantage in 2013, Vergne actually outscored Dan 16-10 in 2012 due to his quintet of 8^th placed finishes, whilst Dan was busy racking up 9ths and 10ths. What is quite impressive though is that Vergne’s 31-8 qualifying head to head deficit (including wet and dry) was reduced to just a 14-10 race head to head deficit in 2 car finishes. It indicates that JEV is much stronger in the race than in qualifying.

Although Vergne has scored nearly three times the points of Kvyat this year (22-8), many of his points came from that one 6^th placed finish in Singapore. In 2 car finishes the picture is closer, with Vergne leading the head to head 7-5. Again Vergne has fought back in the race.

Kvyat’s race head to head stacks up reasonably against what Dan was able to do competing with Vergne in his first year at Toro Rosso. Kvyat is currently 7-5 down, Dan finished 8-7 up. Given the caveats about Dan’s extra experience at HRT and Vergne’s improvement since 2012 this reflects pretty well on Kvyat, especially if he can build on lessons learnt this year.

Key moments

A Formula One Driver is also defined by their outstanding drives and the devastating mistakes that they make, so we’re going to explore some of the most significant moments of this year for Kvyat. Kvyat crushed Vergne in both Spa (quicker all weekend) and Monza (started from the back, brakes failed at the end and still beat him). It’s notable though that these races followed the announcement that Toro Rosso were letting the Frenchman go at the end of this year, and Vergne cut a pretty dejected figure during this point of the season.

On the other hand Kvyat was completely beaten for pace in Hungary, lost out in Japan despite Vergne starting from the back, and then had a shocker in Singapore (hindered though by an issue with his drinks bottle during the race). The recent weekend in Russia was a tough one for the young Russian, as a stunning 5^th place in qualifying was followed by a nightmare race as he fluffed the start and then ruined his tyres unsuccessfully battling with other cars later in the race, eventually finishing around 15 seconds behind his teammate. It doesn’t look good that at his home race of the season and first full race weekend after being promoted he chucked in one of his worst races of the year.

Conclusions..

So just how good is Russia’s finest (F1 driver)? Pretty good, we think. He compares well with Dan in his first year as a Toro Rosso driver – not as quick over one lap or in the race but close. A lot though will depend on how Kvyat develops over the next couple of years. Dan made a big step forward from 2012 to 2013 when compared to Vergne, and is now a very strong driver. It’s impossible for us to judge whether Kvyat will make similarly impressive strides. We wouldn’t be surprised if the more experienced Australian beats him heavily next year, especially in qualifying, but we should see glimpses of just how good Kvyat can be.

The bad news for Kvyat (if being given the chance to drive a Red Bull can ever be bad news) is that he will need to get up to speed quite quickly. If the hype is to be believed about young Max Verstappen, then the flying Dutchman could be breathing down his neck for a Red Bull seat in 2017 or even 2016 if his rookie year is Hamilton-esque. If Kvyat doesn’t match up well to Dan within a couple of years he may find himself on the F1 sidelines, along with a number of other former Red Bull protégés.

And a quick word for poor old JEV. His very respectable record against Dan, and Dan’s consequent thumping of Vettel this year show him to be at the very least deserving of a seat in F1, certainly over drivers like Sutil, Gutierrez and Ericsson. Hopefully a team snaps him up next year. Red Bull concluded that JEV doesn’t have the potential to reach the level that Ricciardo is operating at now (and based on the stats we’d agree – Ricciardo made a bigger step forward than JEV in 2013 and seems to have leapt forward again this year), but he’s still a good driver.

Was promoting Kvyat after just one season the right move for Red Bull? Both Ricciardo and Vettel had two years at Toro Rosso, plus time at other teams before that before being promoting to the big time. It will be tough for Daniil to make the jump after one season, especially with the radio restrictions for 2015. We don’t doubt his potential to be a top driver, but it’s hard not to feel that this is a year too early, which will hurt the team’s hopes of clawing back the Constructors’ Championship from Mercedes in 2015

In the end though they didn’t have many other options. They had already determined that JEV isn’t good enough to drive for the senior team, and it would be against their policy of sticking with their Young Drivers Programme to pick someone else (like the exceptionally capable Alonso). In the end it’s not an ideal option, but it’s the best available given Vettel’s twitchy feet. 

Positively Ricciardo has proven himself capable of leading the team’s charge for the Drivers’ Championship so we can see why it was a straightforward decision for Red Bull.

How Kvyat compares against the stand out driver of 2014 will be one of a number of great storylines to follow next season. We feel that if he can score at least 70% of the points that Dan scores next year then that’s a very impressive result.

Nathaniel Smith and Scott Williams 

Should Mercedes Have Pitted Hamilton on Lap 27? (Brazil 2014)

This is an analysis about whether Lewis Hamilton would have overtaken Nico Rosberg had he pitted on lap 27 (in the second round of pitstops). Hamilton unfortunately spun on lap 28 which jeopardised his race chances. Many sources are suggesting Hamilton had enough time in-hand to jump Rosberg, Mercedes deny this allegation. We jump in to find the truth behind the matter!

Friday Analysis: Who’s turning up the heat in Hockenheim?

Wait, what's this?
 

Welcome to our first (and hopefully not last) Friday analysis. There are a few reasons behind us two F1 nuts trying this out; 

1) A lack of decent analysis out there for interested F1 folk like ourselves 

2) The better stuff is subscriber only (like Gary Anderson’s Autosport analysis, which itself still has a few errors)

3) We figured it would be fun. 

Although we could hardly call ourselves Formula One experts (though we will allow others to do so), we’re both long-standing fans of the sport, and we’ve been analysing Friday practice all year – not least because we’re both betting men...

We’ve focused largely on Free Practice 2, as this is where all teams do both a qualifying simulation and a race simulation. Free Practice 1 is harder to draw conclusions from, as the programmes and fuel loads the teams run are more inconsistent. As well as looking at pure lap times, we’ve taken into consideration issues like traffic, tyre degradation, media snippets from the drivers, and also the patterns we tend to see from Friday across to the rest of the weekend in previous races. So that’s the context, now let’s get stuck in!

Jubilant Germany welcomes the return of Formula One

An eventful Friday at the Hockenheimring saw Formula one return to Germany; a country still wrapped in the throes of celebration, having recently proved themselves to be more capable at kicking an inflatable ball around than any other nation on the planet. This may explain the rare sight in 2014 of Sebastian Vettel in a cheery mood, although as we’ll see below, his less experienced teammate is giving him more headaches in front of his home fans.

Today yielded some particularly interesting questions, such as how the banning of FRIC (front and rear interconnected systems suspension) would affect the pecking order, whether Susie Wolff could show that female drivers have the pace to succeed in F1, and which of the two big Championship rivals has the edge in what could be a decisive weekend.  So let’s take a look at what the FRIC (sorry, but we couldn’t miss out on the pun bandwagon) the story from Friday at Hockenheim looks like.

Analysis: Who looks good?

The first thing to say is that it was a challenging day to analyse, due to a combination of traffic and the F1 timing app once again failing to tell us who was on what tyre at what time in the session – come on Bernie! We had to rely on what we saw on the TV screen, and this meant that we didn’t see much of the smaller teams. Nonetheless, there are some clear patterns emerging.

One lap pace

The headline lap times (Figure 1) appear to show a familiar story, with Mercedes 1-2 out in front. However, a confident Ricciardo was nipping (wolfishly?) at their heels, suggesting qualifying could see a repeat of Austria with the Mercs being pushed very hard – although this time by Red Bull rather than Williams. McLaren continue to look pretty handy over one lap, and Ferrari also look decent – Alonso made an error in sector three and will surely find more pace compared to Raikkonen. Williams appear to be struggling, although we would guard against reading too much in to that, as they tend to hide their true pace on a Friday more than most teams. Ferrari on the other hand tend to flatter on a Friday, so don’t be surprised if they find themselves fourth best come qualifying. Behind them Sutil was a surprise in 11^th, and the Force Indias continue to struggle to show their full pace in qualifying trim. Lotus continue to flounder.

In terms of teammate battles, it was mega tight between the two Mercedes boys. Neither nailed their lap with Hamilton getting traffic in Sector 3, and Rosberg making an error on his first flying lap, meaning his tyres were past their best when he did set his lap time. Ricciardo once again appears to have the edge on Vettel.

Figure 1: Fastest theoretical lap times, consisting of the driver’s best sectors. Thanks to the McLaren fan site for this!

Race pace

We’ve looked separately at runs on the soft and the supersoft tyre, as each had a different story to tell.

Figure 2: Long run lap times on supersoft tyre – we’ve taken the drivers with the most representative stints for each team, and both of the Mercedes drivers

The Mercedes again look to have the edge here by at least a couple of tenths, with Rosberg looking particularly strong, although Hamilton became stronger throughout his stint. Ricciardo stands out as best of the rest with a very positive Sergio Perez next. Williams were struggling, but again they tend to gain with respect to other teams after a Friday. McLaren were unable to match their qualifying pace with long run pace, which has been the case a few times this year. Jenson Button was quick to point out the cars difficulty with the supersoft tyre after the practice session.

What also stands out here is the severe tyre degredation on the supersoft, with times dropping off dramatically after as little as six laps. Ricciardo and the Mercedes managed them better, with Ricciardo making them last for around twenty laps (across several stints). Vettel had good pace compared to Ricciardo, but saw a more severe drop off. Expect to see the top teams pitting early in the race and having to make their way past cars running longer on the prime tyre. 

Figure 3: Long run lap times on the soft tyre

Again there are three drivers here who stand out for both pace and consistency – Rosberg, Hamilton and Ricciardo. Vettel started quickly, but again seemed to be hurting his tyres – after his first six laps or so he was around a second a lap slower than Ricciardo. Alonso doesn’t look to have the pace to keep up with the Red Bulls and the Mercedes, especially given the tendency of the Ferrari to overperform on a Friday.

As we said, we have stayed away from the smaller teams due to the difficulty in determining tyres, but it was pretty clear that the Caterham still has its canine properties, and the only way that car could look more freakish is if it turned up to the circuit dressed in a lederhosen.

Conclusions

It looks like another great battle between the two Mercedes drivers for pole and the win, with Rosberg appearing to have a slight edge at this stage of the weekend. Ricciardo looks comfortably best of the rest, and is hot favourite for the final podium spot. Behind him Vettel looks strong, but then the picture is a bit murkier. Williams will definitely improve, but they were chewing through their tyres faster than a hungry mouse through cheddar, so could have a tough race. Alonso will once again be up there challenging for 5^th to 7^th, and expect to see Force India coming through strongly later in the race due to their tyre whispering car, whilst McLaren (who also tend to flatter on Fridays) will probably drop backwards.

One of the biggest factors today and potentially for the rest of the weekend is the extreme heat, which made the supersoft tyres fall away like a tasty soft French cheese, particularly for some teams (Williams, Sauber). This could be a challenge in the race, pushing out the tyre strategy to perhaps even three stops for some teams. It may also create reliability issues, and Rosberg’s steaming hot brakes in Practice 2 brought to mind memories of Canada. 

Other potential threats to Merc is the removal of FRIC which caused set-up issues. 

The threat of rain still hangs over the circuit for race day, with rain forecast at 60% likely, and mostly focused around race time. Not since Brazil 2012 have we had a proper wet race, and it would something incredible to watch with the 2014 cars with their high torque and lower downforce. Wet weather would create a big unknown, but based on wet qualifying sessions we would expect the gap between Mercedes and Red Bull to lessen, and those two cars to pull away even further from the rest.

Quick tips

Ricciardo to qualify top 3 @ 2.5 with Bwin

Qualifying winning margin under 0.15 seconds @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

Spotted: A Wolff in the Formula One pack

It was terrific to see Susie Wolff complete a full Practice session, after the howler that she had in Silverstone with her car grinding to a miserable halt on her second timed lap. She put in some impressive times, consistently staying within half a second of Massa. 

It was clear to us that Susie was enjoying herself, as she was in such a hurry to get back on track that she even set the fastest time through the pitlane speed trap – twice! A $2,000 speeding fine would probably put a spoiler on our day, but we’re sure that the Williams F1 team can afford it. We hope to see Susie back in a Formula One car, not least because of the sheer multitude of pun opportunities that her surname presents. Still, our favourite this year has to be, “Ok Lewis, it’s hammertime.”

And with that we bid you auf wiedersehen. Enjoy the weekend!

2013 Teammate Rivalry Preview

With the new season just a day away, it is an ideal time to look at this year's rivalries and the likely winners of the inter-team battles! Beating your teammate is the first objective for every driver, without this crucial success you can never aspire to be champion. For some this is the actual reality, a momentary mistake in the wet causing a spin. Dreams lost. For others winning the teammate war may be the difference between F1 survival and an end of a career. Bearing this in mind let's take a closer look.

Recurring team battles

Vettel v. Webber (Red Bull)

Reigning world champion vs. world champion hopeful. The Red Bull should be a strong car from the get-go so they’ll both have opportunities for race wins. There are certain things in Webber’s favour this year e.g. the removal of unlimited DRS which Vettel mastered so well and the change in engine mappings which often were a solution to Vettel’s style. Bearing these factors in mind, there is reason for optimism for Webber fans.

He’ll look to build on this promise and carry it through better than last year. Webber started off so positively but faltered towards the year-end (see right for 2012 form guide) when the Red Bull improved. What does Webber need to do differently to win? First he needs to build a strong platform in the first eight races (historically his better races) and then he needs to become consistent. Vettel rarely has bad weekends, the same cannot be said for Webber who often goes anonymous e.g. Texas 2012 amongst others.

Ultimately unless the car behaves a certain way it’s hard to envisage Webber coming out on top in this duel. Vettel has been too consistent and is so suited to the optimised Red Bull. Expect Vettel to punish Webber on his off weekends.

Pick: Vettel to be beaten four or five times in the season but to win by a strong margin (70-90 points)

Alonso v. Massa (Ferrari)

Alonso is undisputed number one at Ferrari. In the past he’s stamped his authority where necessary and caused the appropriate noise to be heard, don’t expect anything different at Ferrari. The official line at Ferrari is that both drivers are allowed to race equally and this might be allowed temporarily but for the sake of harmony and the championship this won’t happen for long.

The form guide from last year shows how dominant Alonso was however it should be noted that Massa probably performed better in the last four or five races which raises some interesting questions. Should the Ferrari be in the same place this duel could turn very interesting but ultimately, I think, predictable.

Pick: Alonso to win by only a reasonable margin of 50-70 points

Raikkonen v. Grosjean (Lotus)

Grosjean is one of the most naturally talented drivers on the grid in normal conditions. Blisteringly quick over one lap and furthermore he has a lot to prove. I want to make another Grosjean prediction, like last year, but I admit Raikkonen positively surprised me which brings an element of doubt into my mind.

I’ll be the first to admit that although I’m a big fan of Raikkonen’s persona I’m not the greatest believer in his natural talent (often lauded as equivalent to Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton). In qualifying this year I expect Grosjean to have the slight edge but to not capitalise on these strong qualifying performances enough. Plus I think his dips will be greater than Raikkonen who will consistently collect points due to his maturity.

I see this as the second closest team battle after Di Resta/Sutil but I’m going to have to back Raikkonen by the smallest of margins.

Pick: Raikkonen to edge Grosjean by 5-15 points.

Vergne v. Ricciardo (Toro Rosso)

This is a make-or-break season for both. Toro Rosso are notorious (although not as bad as their reputation) for getting rid of drivers who they don’t see as a long term investment. The ultimate goal for these two is therefore to prove that they are good enough for either a) the Red Bull second seat, Webber’s retirement may be imminent especially with the new v6’s next year or b) they are worth an F1 seat elsewhere.

It’s unlikely that both will be retained next year so as Ricciardo describes he must blow Vergne away to make the impression in F1 that he needs and wants to. Last year showed that Ricciardo has certain advantages over his highly rated teammate. His qualifying pace is exceptional especially a sixth place in Bahrain which defied logic. As you can see from the form guide he continued his strong form towards the end of the season too.

This is going to be a fierce battle but the qualifying differences between the two will in my opinion be critical and will ensure Ricciardo scores the more points of the two.

Pick: Ricciardo by 5-15 points.

Di Resta v. Sutil (Force India)

Last time they were teammates, (back in 2011) before Sutil’s forced break, the two were fairly equal. The two main questions are therefore whether Sutil’s break has affected him and whether Di Resta has progressed as a driver last year. Two complex questions indeed.

Firstly I think Sutil’s break looks to have mentally rejuvenated him and it didn’t take him long to re-acquaint himself during testing. This is a positive sign for him. Di Resta also had to deal with his own adversity, losing a season-long battle with Hulkenberg. This may have affected him negatively however I believe not.

In short both have a point to prove and this battle will be incredibly close. National bias aside I’m still going to go for Di Resta to edge Sutil. I feel the support from the team and the extra year of experience will give him the slight edge needed to beat Sutil.

Pick: Di Resta to marginally win by 2-5 points.

New team battles

Hamilton v. Rosberg (Mercedes)

Hamilton has the star quality but Rosberg has the advantage of being with Mercedes for three years. This is a substantial advantage and it may be one that proves decisive. It takes time to adapt (consistently) to a new team. There are often great results immediately; for example Mansell, Raikkonen and Alonso all winning in their first race for Ferrari but ultimately it takes longer to really master the car, understand the team and to deliver a season like Alonso’s 2012.

The first three races will be absolutely crucial in this team battle. Australia is the initial marker and Malaysia and China are some of Rosberg’s strongest circuits. If Rosberg stays on top through these three races, who knows what will happen next. If he cedes then we’ll have a strong indication of the rest of 2013. Rosberg is often strongest at the beginning of the year and was ultimately pegged back by Schumacher last year (see end of the post).

I expect qualifying to be close between the two throughout the year however I expect the race to be a different matter entirely. Hamilton is a proven race winner/title contender and I expect him to deliver the consistency and outstanding performances when they really matter.  There is still an element of doubt however; the knowledge of Mercedes and the overall beating of, in my opinion, the greatest F1 driver of all-time (albeit outside his peak years) gives Rosberg credibility.

Pick: Hamilton to overcome a strong Rosberg start to win by 20-30 points.

Button v. Perez (McLaren)

Button is a world champion and a lot of his success this year will depend on the consistency in the cars balance. Should be have enough to beat Perez? I believe so. Perez is young, inexperienced and completely new to the McLaren way of doing things. This inexperience was shown last year towards the end of the season during various incidents (think Suzuka where a misjudged pass on Hamilton led to his retirement or Malaysia when he ran wide spurning the chance for victory). Perez needs to look at McLaren as a long-term investment, take the opportunity to learn from Button and take things slowly.

Perez certainly has the talent but there seems to be a common consensus that Button is the ‘team leader’ and this will give him the ability to tailor the car to his style. I think the only way Perez wins this battle is by showing us a consistency and maturity of approach not yet seen. The two drivers have similar styles and weaknesses so the car dynamics will not allow Perez to get a jump on his more experienced teammate (like the opposing styles of Hamilton and Button).

Pick: Button to comfortably beat Perez by 50-60 points.

Hulkenberg v. Gutierrez (Sauber)

This is the easiest teammate battle to predict in my opinion, closely followed by Alonso/Massa. Hulkenberg has two years’ experience in F1 and one of the best junior records of all of the F1 drivers. It would send shockwaves around F1 if Gutierrez was able to dethrone Hulkenberg.

Gutierrez has already showed signs of struggling in pre-season testing. I analysed the data and most of his runs looked significant worse than Hulkenberg, even when trying to compare on a like-for-like basis. Gutierrez plans a ‘cautious’ approach to the year, looking to learn from every experience and that alone is evidence that he won’t be able to challenge Hulkenberg who’s already learnt those lessons.

Pick: Hulkenberg to demolish Gutierrez by 40-60 points.

Maldonado v. Bottas (Williams)

A quick look at the junior records of these two and you would be in little doubt about the eventual winner; Bottas has succeeded in every series he’s been in (top 3 in each full season), Maldonado the opposite. In fact it took Maldonado 4 attempts to finish in the top 3 in GP2.

Is the reality as cut and dry? Maldonado, true to form, struggled in his first season of F1 (finishing 18^th by scoring a solitary point). The Williams was a difficult car to drive though. Last year was better and he showed his mettle with a spectacular ‘pole’ and win. The rest of the season showed flashes of brilliance but overall it finished disappointingly. Maldonado, above all else, needs consistency.

Bottas is less of an unknown than the other rookies, his Friday practice results last year indicate that he can challenge Maldonado from the off in terms of pace. Consistency again will be key, he states mistakes will be inevitable but this underlines a mature approach, to his racing, and suggests he’ll bounce back from difficult results. Bottas is highly rated and rightly so, I back him to take it to Maldonado and let his greater talent and consistency from junior formulas shine through. There will ultimately be times when Maldonado is almost untouchable, at street circuits in particular, but Formula 1 is above all else a mental game and Bottas comes to the party well prepared.

Pick: Bottas to beat Maldonado by 5-10 points

Pic v. Van der Garde (Caterham)

In 2011 both of these drivers raced for Barwa Addax in GP2, Van der Garde won twice and finished 4^th. Pic didn’t win but still finished 5^th. The overall difference was only 3 points. What this shows is that Van der Garde is quick but lacks a consistency Pic has.

Pic was recruited by Marussia after this performance and the extra year in F1 should give him the advantage needed to beat Van der Garde. I wasn’t as impressed with Pic last year as many although he progressed nicely as the season went on but I do expect him to have too much this year for Van der Garde. Expect things to get closer towards the end of the season.

Pick: Pic to beat Van der Garde by 0 points (quite close)

Bianchi v. Chilton (Marussia)

The start of the season will be interesting. Chilton has the greater F1 experience due to greater mileage during testing, made possible by the conflict surrounding Razia’s sponsors. Bianchi has the better junior record and instantly looked good.

I think the 2010 and 2011 GP2 seasons hint towards the discrepancy between the drivers.  Chilton finished 25^th and 20^th whereas Bianchi finished 3^rd both times. Bianchi definitely has the raw speed and the talent to make it big but there are doubts over his reliability/consistency.

All-in-all it’s hard to see past Bianchi winning this one, championship results are often very unreliable in slow cars as one result (for instance a lucky 14^th place) could be the deciding results however I’m going to confidently predict Bianchi.

Pick: Jules Bianchi to beat Max Chilton by 0 points (but relatively comfortably)

Do you think you know better? Join our prediction league to find out. Deadline: Tonight before FP1.