Tuesday, 15 April 2014

China 2014 (Round 4) - F1 Prediction League

Two weeks after an incredible Bahrain race and we're arriving into China for round 4 of the F1 prediction league 2014!

Big changes at the top with Stefano Domenicali leaving Ferrari and Bob Bell leaving Mercedes. Meanwhile McLaren are in the background poaching staff everywhere. Did someone mention a possible Ross Brawn Ferrari return too?

Who would have thought that Ferrari dominated China just a year ago. The change in Pirelli tyres and the RB resurgence put an end to that and Ferrari have really struggled since.

China is the last round before substantial upgrades/changes will be brought to Europe. This could be Mercedes' last race with a clear advantage with the pursuing group looking to close that gap. I however feel Mercedes are almost uncatchable this year. Unless a team can gain 1-2 seconds over a very short space of time, this championship looks like it's heading to the Brackley based team.

As always here is a re-cap from the standings:
 





--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Random


Thanks to Kiszol, Michael and Sangan for their help in creating this random and taking part in the random discussion.
  
Random contains five distinct questions. The emphasis is mainly on risk vs. rewards. The choice of what to pick is entirely you're own but if you fail and pick an incorrect answer you'll obviously come away with 0 points.

The winner of the random will be the player who scores the most points overall. Tie-breaks will be decided on the highest lowest round (which scored points) and continue up until a winner is decided. The second tie-break is decided on posting time (the earlier the better).

Just to illustrate the above. If one player scores 1, 2, 3, 5, 0 and another scores 2, 3, 3, 2, 1 then the second player wins. The 0 is discounted from the analysis, then we look at the highest lowest round 1 v 1, tie. Move on, 2 v 2. Tie, move on. 3 v 2. Player 2 wins. This is to stop players from picking too conservatively and to remove the element of perhaps one extremely lucky pick giving a complete edge to a player (e.g. Chilton being third after a safety car).
 

Q1: Name a driver who will finish at least one lap in the top 3 positions in the race.
A:
Hamilton / Rosberg - 1 point
Vettel - 2 points
Ricciardo / Alonso - 3 points
Hulkenberg / Raikkonen / Button / Perez / Bottas / Massa - 4 points
Magnussen - 5 points
Vergne / Kvyat - 6 points
Sutil / Gutierrez / Maldonado / Grosjean - 7 points
Chilton / Bianchi / Ericsson / Kobayashi - 10 points

Q2: Name a team which qualifies at least one car in the top eight positions
(an extra bonus point will be given if both drivers qualify top eight, two extra bonus points if both drivers qualify top six (excluding Mercedes)).
A:
Mercedes: 1 point
Red Bull: 2 points
Force India/Ferrari/Williams: 3 points
McLaren: 4 points
Toro Rosso: 6 points
Sauber/Lotus: 7 points
Caterham/Marussia: 10 points

Q3: Which driver will qualify the most positions in front of his own teammate? (Penalties do not count - result based on provisional grid before penalties. A team with a disqualified driver counts as 0 points regardless of which driver is disqualified. Tie-breaks decided by highest position).
Best answer - 5 points
2nd, 3rd - 4 points
4th, 5th - 3 points
6th, 7th, 8th - 2 points
9th, 10th, 11th - 1 point
Driver picked out-qualified - 0 points

Q4: Pick one Driver A (e.g. Sutil) to beat their Driver B (e.g. Maldonado) in the race.  A retirement in your pairing results in 0 points being scored. I've used a random generator to generate 12 random options - I've assigned points to each of these options. A bonus point goes to the result which has the greatest margin of victory/lowest margin of defeat (based on time, not position).

Sutil - Maldonado 1 point
Bottas - Massa 1 point
Massa - Räikkönen 2 points
Button - Vettel 3 points
Magnussen - Vettel 4 points
Vergne - Bottas 4 points
Vergne - Button 5 points
Kvyat - Ricciardo 5 points
Grosjean - Hulkenberg 6 points
Bottas - Hamilton 7 points
Bianchi - Button 8 points
Ericsson - Ricciardo 8 points

Q5: Predict the finishing position of Kimi Räikkönen in the race.

Correct: 4 points
One away: 3 points
Two away: 2 points
Within three: 1 point
Outside: 0 points

Kimi retires/isn't classified: 0 points

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Template


Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors:
Random:
Q1 -
Q2 -
Q3 -
Q4 -
Q5 -

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Alonso will be hoping that lightning strikes again. So will a charger by the name of ediglo, hoping to repeat the form which took him to an unprecedented debut win. I for one will be supporting this (this has nothing to do with us being teammates... Vamos Williams!... I mean may the best team win).

Good luck everyone!




22 comments:

  1. Uber-conservative:

    Qualifying: Nico
    Race: Nico
    Constructors: Merc
    Random:
    Q1 - Rosberg
    Q2 - Force India
    Q3 - Alonso
    Q4 - Massa - Raikkonen
    Q5 - 10th

    ReplyDelete
  2. good Morning, below my picks:

    Qualy: Rosberg.
    Race: Rosberg.
    Constructor: Mercedes
    Q1- Vettel.
    Q2- McLaren.
    Q3- Hulkenberg
    Q4- Massa - Raikkonen
    Q5- 9th.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Qualy: Rosberg
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructor: Mercedes
    Q1- Gutierrez
    Q2- Toro Rosso.
    Q3- Ricciardo
    Q4- Vergne - Button
    Q5- 13th

    ReplyDelete
  4. Joe's picks as posted:

    Qualifying - Hamilton
    Race - Rosberg
    Constructors - Mercedes
    Random 1 - Ricciardo
    Random 2 - Williams
    Random 3 - Grosjean
    Random 4 - Massa-Raikkonen
    Random 5 - 1st . By which I mean 9th.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Aled Lewis' picks as emailed:

    Qualifying: Lewis Hamilton
    Race: Daniel Riccardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Q1 - Riccardo
    Q2 - Red Bull
    Q3 - Riccardo
    Q4 - Vergne - Button
    Q5 - 12th

    Daniel Riccardo on the war path!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Grosjean
    Q2 - Lotus
    Q3 - Alonso
    Q4 - Grosjean - Hulkenberg
    Q5 - 5th

    ReplyDelete
  7. Rajaram's picks:

    Qualifying: Rosberg
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Hulkenberg
    Q2 - Force India
    Q3 - Bottas
    Q4 - Vergene- Button
    Q5 - 8th

    ReplyDelete
  8. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes

    Random

    Q1: Ricciardo
    Q2: Ferrari
    Q3: Bottas
    Q4: Grosjean - Hulkenburg
    Q5: 6th


    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks Scott! I can join the Williams team (?). It's the only one I really want to be a part of (been a fan since 1994. Not even Pastor leaving last year has stopped my support). ediglo are you happy with me as your team mate?

    Qualifying: Rosberg.
    Race: Rosberg.
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Q1 - Vettel.
    Q2 - Red Bull.
    Q3 - Hulkenberg
    Q4 - Vergne - Bottas
    Q5 - 8th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm happy if ediglo is? I've been told that the Williams team are very unhappy with me!

      Delete
    2. Obviously this would mean ediglo would become 1st driver and Williams would retain the 28 points I scored.

      Delete
  10. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Hulkenberg
    Q2 - McLaren
    Q3 - Bottas
    Q4 - Vergne - Button
    Q5 - 8th

    ReplyDelete
  11. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Hulkenberg
    Q2 - Ferrari
    Q3 - Hulkenberg
    Q4 - Massa - Raikkonen
    Q5 - 11th

    ReplyDelete
  12. Lets hope for another exciting race and I imagine a close battle throughout the league. My picks are

    Qualifying: Lewis Hamilton
    Race: Lewis Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1- Daniel Ricciardo
    Q2- Ferrari
    Q3- Nico Hulkenburg
    Q4- Felipe Massa- Kimi Räikkönen
    Q5- 10th

    ReplyDelete
  13. BREAKING NEWS

    Frank Williams has come out in a scathing attack on reigning world champion, Scott Williams. Frank Williams was quoted as saying "he ignored a team order regarding the driver's briefing. Ediglo had the first right to choose his seat for the pivotal three hour meeting, an order we like to call Seat 21 but this was ignored. Outrageous behaviour like this sends out the wrong messages to the engineers, the sponsors and his teammate. As no one is bigger than the team his contract will be terminated with immediate effect".

    Scott's agent said the driver was shocked at the news, claiming it was a misunderstanding and that he didn't realise there was an agreement or that he had broken it until after the meeting. "Despite this major development, Scott has other options".

    The agent also floated three interesting rumours - firstly that Marussia is in pole position to secure his services. Secondly that the 2010 and 2011 championship runner-up may return to the grid as his teammate. And lastly that Ross Brawn may come out of retirement to lead Marussia to the sharp end of the grid (all three above rumours are unconfirmed at the moment. It's also rumoured that ediglo has the ability to stop Frank Williams from executing this move as part of ediglo's complex contract with Williams).

    Scott was unavailable for comment at the current time.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi folks - nice to meet you all! I was one of the initial F1 predictors - way back in 2010 when F1 cars still had those screechy V8 engines (yeah, hard to believe!) and not one, but TWO diffusers, Scott and I battled away in an epic prediction championship that Scott was the victor in. Now after a several year sabbatical (rallying, of course, like all good F1 drivers) I fancy having another stab at F1 predictions and have been generously offered a seat by mighty Marussia. Marussia inform me that they'd be happy if I finish last or above, and I know that if I work hard I should be able to achieve that lofty goal. I welcome the challenge of my rumoured team mate Mr Scott Williams after his unceremonious firing by the Williams F1 team.

    So, my predictions for China are:
    Q: Hamilton
    R: Hamilton
    C: Mercedes
    Random 1: Hulkenberg
    2: Force India
    3: Alonso
    4: Massa-Raikkonen
    5: 9th

    Hoping for another great race :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Welcome back Nat. As we know from Kimi taking a couple of years away from the sport doesn't dull your ability particularly in a prediction league environment.

      Delete
  15. I am expecting great battle for 3rd postition in the race.
    Well done for the random category , fantastic.

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 -Vettel
    Q2 -RedBull
    Q3 -Hulkenberg
    Q4 -Vergne - Bottas
    Q5 - 7th

    ReplyDelete
  16. Rose's picks:

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Hulkenberg
    Q2 - Red Bull
    Q3 - Hulkenberg
    Q4 - Massa - Räikönnen
    Q5 - 8th

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Hulkenberg
    Q2 - McLaren
    Q3 - Hulkenberg
    Q4 - Massa - Raikkonen
    Q5 - 9th

    Welcome back to Nat :-) Let's hope for another Bahrain - chocolate and F1, my kind of weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Surprisingly similar to one other player by the looks of things.

    Q: Hamilton
    R: Hamilton
    C: Mercedes
    Random:
    1 - Ricciardo
    2 - Ferrari
    3 - Hulkenberg
    4 - Bottas - Massa
    5 - 7th

    ReplyDelete
  19. Almost forgot.............here now.

    Qualifying: Hamster (Hamilton)
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Q1 - Hulkenberg
    Q2 - Ferrari
    Q3 - Hulkenberg
    Q4 - Sutil - Maldonado
    Q5 - 10th

    ReplyDelete