Wednesday, 29 October 2014

United States GP 2014 - F1 Prediction League


Sorry for the delay (I've been travelling on business), thanks to Nat for his contribution to this thread.

Welcome to the US of A for the 17th Grand Prix of a terrific 2014 season. With the title fight going down to the wire and Nico Rosberg desperately needing a win to grab the momentum back off the hard-charging Lewis Hamilton, this weekend could be huge – like everything else in the USA, particularly their burgers.


Less huge will be the Formula One grid this weekend, with both the financially troubled minnows of the sport, Marussia and Caterham, missing the Grand Prix. The news about Marussia was something of a surprise, although Caterham’s cash problems (and ownership issues) have been well-documented in recent months, including an astonishing story that all kinds of key equipment (simulators, development parts and so forth) was to be auctioned off. It prompted this amusing article on the satirical site Sniff Petrol suggesting that Kamui Kobayashi may be the next to be auctioned off.                                                  


It will be a shame to see just 18 cars on the grid this weekend – the lowest since 2005 – and the latest development in what has been a tough month for the sport with Bianchi’s accident in Japan. Bianchi is now a in stable condition, but there’s still a long way to go – our thoughts and wishes are with him.

On the Prediction League front last weekend proved fairly dramatic, with changes at the top of both the Constructors and main Prediction League following Red Bull’s disastrous performance around the Sochi Autodrom. There’s still plenty to play for with both titles remaining closely fought, as they have done all season, and people fighting to retain their seat – or grab a nice shiny new one. Marussia's plunge into administration has huge implications for the PL but Ross Brawn (Team Principal) has convinced Bernie to support him for three more races, before he goes fishing again. Who will come out on top this weekend?

The current championship standings are:




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Random


Thanks to everyone who has helped so far on random this year - please feel free to post suggestions here for other races. 


Back in the fight


A win for Hamilton this weekend means that, barring retirements (oooh errr), Rosberg could win the final two weekends and it still wouldn’t be enough to take the title from the Brit. Hamilton has never been outqualified or outraced by a teammate here in Austin, giving Rosberg a trouncing last year. How well will he fight back this weekend?


How many sessions will Rosberg beat Hamilton in this weekend (FP1, FP2, FP3, Q, R)?
Correct 3 pts
1-2 away 2 pts
3-4 away 1 pt

Pick a combination of statements from the following (note that all statements you choose have to be correct in order to gain points):
Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions 1 pt
Hamilton to beat Rosberg in every free practice session 2 pts
Rosberg to beat Hamilton in two of the three practice sessions 2 pts
Rosberg to beat Hamilton in every free practice session 4 pts
Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg 1 pt
Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg by at least 0.2s 2pts
Rosberg will outqualify Hamilton 3 pts
Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts
Rosberg will beat Hamilton in the race 3pts
 (In the event of a race retirement that is clearly not the fault of the driver, statements will be taken to be correct at time of retirement as long as at least half laps have been completed e.g. if Hamilton is ahead of Rosberg by over 8 seconds and Hamilton retires  on lap 40 then the statement that Hamilton will beat Rosberg by 5+ seconds in the race will be deemed correct. If the driver takes themselves out of the race/qualifying then they will be deemed to have been beaten by their teammate by the maximum margin. A retirement issue in qualifying will not invalidate race result and vice versa. Bit convoluted but hopefully you trust our judgement!)


Note: stacking statements will not receive extra points. For example in the case of Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg by at least 0.2s, you will receive two points for predicting this correct. Picking Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg will not earn you any additional points. The more extreme pick will always take precedent so if it's incorrect you'll score 0 points in the whole category.


Super Sebastian


This time last year Vettel was heading into the Austin Grand Prix about to win his 8th consecutive race. This year he finds himself starting from the pitlane, over 50 points down on his teammate and daydreaming about driving a red car.
What can he salvage from this weekend? We’re going to have some fun guessing how far he can charge through the depleted field. Pick two statements from the following (points if correct in brackets)
Super Seb will beat both Lotus and Sauber cars (1)
Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos (2)
Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
Super Seb will beat a Williams on merit i.e. not because of the Williams’ problems (5)
(Retirement rules are as follows: If Vettel retires in the first half of the reason no points awarded. If he retires in the second half then half points are awarded for the statements correct at the time of retirement. Retirements for the other cars mean Seb 'beats' them (except for the Williams pick) unless Seb is behind them with over 75% race distance complete.)

How many positions will Seb finish behind Dan in the race?
0-1 away from being correct (5)
2-3 away (4)
4-5 away (3)
6-7 away (2)
8-9 away (1)

Bringing up the rear
The depleted grid means that Lotus and Sauber find themselves in the unfamiliar position of fighting not to finish last. For some perspective, last year Lotus last year managed to get a 2nd (Grosjean) and Sauber 6th (Hulkenberg).

Who will qualify last?
Maldonado 1 pt
Grosjean 2 pts
Sutil 2 pts
Gutierrez 3 pts
Any other 5 pts
(Note that it has to be a classified time, not taking part in qualifying does not count towards this)

Who will finish last in the race? (the lowest driver not to retire)
Maldonado 1 pt
Grosjean 2 pts
Sutil 2 pts
Gutierrez 2 pts
Other 3 pts

How many seconds will the highest finishing Lotus or Sauber finish behind the next car? (This will also act as a tie-break, closest guess first).
0-5 seconds away 3 pts
5-15 seconds away 2 pts
15-25 1 pt
(if there’s a safety car in the last 10 laps then it will be the time gap taken on the final lap before the safety car came out)



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Template


Hamilton, Rosberg and Mercedes banned.

Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors: 
Random:

Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
1) X/5 sessions
2) [list out all statements thought to be true]
Vettel (Super Sebastian)
1) [Pick two statements]
2) X number of places behind Dan
Bringing up the rear
1) X will qualify last
2) X will finish the race last
3) X seconds (also a TB)

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As always picks are due before Free Practice 1 which is 1600 GMT/1000 Local time.

22 comments:

  1. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 3/5 sessions
    2) Rosberg will outqualify Hamilton 3 pts
    Rosberg to beat Hamilton in two of the three practice sessions 2 pts
    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
    Super Seb will beat a Williams on merit i.e. not because of the Williams’ problems (5)
    2) 3 number of places behind Dan
    Bringing up the rear
    1) Gutierrez will qualify last
    2) Gutierrez will finish the race last
    3) 18 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Qualifying: McLaren
    Race: Button
    Constructors: McLaren
    Random:

    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 1/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg 1 pt
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Lotus and Sauber cars (1)
    Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos (2)
    2) 8 number of places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Maldonado will qualify last
    2) Giutierrez will finish the race last
    3) 45 seconds

    I actually don't think Seb will finish at all so the Super Seb part is hard.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Brian, just spotted you put Mclaren down for qualifying! Guessing you meant Button? Or Bruce Mclaren... ;-)

      Delete
  3. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:

    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 0/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg 1 pt
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Lotus and Sauber cars (1)
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    2) 7 places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Sutil will qualify last
    2) Sutil will finish the race last
    3) 33 seconds

    ReplyDelete
  4. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:

    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 2/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    2) 3 places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Perez will qualify last
    2) Grosjean will finish the race last
    3) 1 second

    ReplyDelete
  5. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: RedBull Racing
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 3/5 sessions
    2) Rosberg to beat Hamilton in two of the three practice sessions 2 pts
    Rosberg will beat Hamilton in the race 3pts
    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
    2) 3 number of places behind Dan
    Bringing up the rear
    1) Sutil will qualify last
    2) Gutierrez will finish the race last
    3) 4 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 3/5 sessions
    2a) Rosberg will outqualify Hamilton 3 pts
    2b) Rosberg will beat Hamilton in the race 3pts
    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1a) Super Seb will beat both Force Indias
    1b) Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari
    2) 2 places behind Dan
    Bringing up the rear
    1) Maldonado will qualify last
    2) Gutierrez will finish the race last
    3) 5-15 seconds (also a TB – 11.3)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also, I object to being forced to refer to Seb as "super".

      Delete
    2. You've earned the right not to use it! You were the only one in the league to predict Ricciardo to beat Vettel this year. I backed him after China but hardly as great as your initial call!

      Delete
  7. Aled Lewis' picks:

    Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Button
    Constructors: McLaren
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 4/5 sessions
    2) Rosberg will beat Hamilton in the race 3pts
    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    Super Seb will beat both Toro Rosso (2)
    2) 6 number of places behind Dan
    Bringing up the rear
    1) Sutil will qualify last
    2) Sutil will finish the race last
    3) 5.6 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  8. My picks although I feel it will be hard to make decisive differences vs Scott are

    Qualifying: Valterri Bottas
    Race: Daniel Ricciardo
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 2/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Torro Rossos
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias
    2) 5 number of places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Pastor Maldonado will qualify last
    2) Pastor Maldonado will finish the race last
    3) 8.850 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 1/5 sessions
    2)
    Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions 1 pt
    Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg by at least 0.2s 2pts
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1)
    Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos (2)
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    2) 6 number of places behind Dan
    Bringing up the rear
    1) Gutierrez will qualify last
    2) Maldonado will finish the race last
    3) 27.8 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  10. I declared all of my picks earlier today to Michael (except one Super Seb pick as I was undecided). Generally it's important for the championship leader to post first in the last three or so rounds to eliminate any suspicion of block picking etc.

    Qualifying: Valtteri Bottas
    Race: Valtteri Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:

    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 1/5 session
    2) Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
    Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions 1 pt

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Lotus and Sauber cars (1)
    Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos (2)
    2) 4 places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Maldonado will qualify last
    2) Maldonado will finish the race last
    3) 27 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Win or bust in both championships!!! Fingers crossed Dragan

    Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Ricciardo
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:

    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 3/5 sessions
    2) Rosberg will outqualify Hamilton 3 pts
    Rosberg to beat Hamilton in two of the three practice sessions 2 pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1)
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
    2) 7 places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Gutierrez will qualify last
    2) Gutierrez will finish the race last
    3) 34.231 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:

    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 3/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton to beat Rosberg in every free practice session 2 pts
    Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg by at least 0.2s 2pts
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1)
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias (3)
    Super Seb will beat at least one McLaren and at least one Ferrari (4)
    2) 6 places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear
    1) Gutierrez will qualify last
    2) Maldonado will finish the race last
    3) 17 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  13. Just a quick point to all (I wasn't really thinking yesterday). Stacking statements in the Hamilton/Rosberg category doesn't give you any additional points. For example, I picked:

    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt

    I can only score a maximum of 2 points in this case for these two statements (if Hamilton beats Rosberg by over 5+ seconds then I score 2 points, if he doesn't then I score 0 points for the entire category). As Hamilton beating Rosberg is part of the other statement it's unfair to all to give additional points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Apologies one final clarification - after speaking to Nat (who created the random) stacking counts. For anyone who picked the extreme versions (e.g. Hamilton to outqualify Rosberg by 0.2 seconds) they will receive points for the less extreme version (e.g. Hamilton to outqualify Rosberg) too. So 3 points are on offer for correctly predicting the qualifying over 0.2 seconds.

      Delete
  14. I can confirm as championship leader Scott declared his picks first to me and from past championship battles does not block pick. My comment with regards to making decisive differences is that I know how hard it is to beat Scott over a season, in most cases it is a single pick over a season.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams

    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)

    1) 3/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions 1 pt
    Rosberg will outqualify Hamilton 3 pts
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race by 5+ seconds 2pts

    Vettel (Super Sebastian)

    1) Super Seb will beat both Lotus and Sauber cars
    Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos
    2) 2 places behind Dan

    Bringing up the rear

    1) Maldonado will qualify last
    2) Gutierrez will finish the race last
    3) 14.245 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  16. Qualifying: Bottas
    Race: Bottas
    Constructors: Williams
    Random:
    Hamilton/Rosberg (Back in the fight)
    1) 1/5 sessions
    2) Hamilton to beat Rosberg in two of the three practice sessions 1 pt
    Hamilton will outqualify Rosberg 1 pt
    Hamilton will beat Rosberg in the race 1 pt
    Vettel (Super Sebastian)
    1) Super Seb will beat both Toro Rossos
    Super Seb will beat both Force Indias
    2) 4 places behind Dan
    Bringing up the rear
    1) Maldonado will qualify last
    2) Maldonado will finish the race last
    3) 15 seconds (also a TB)

    ReplyDelete
  17. Fuck.I forgot to post....I'm such an idiot , sorry Sangan.I work tomorrow but usually I never work saturdays so I was thinking it was thursday.I dont think we have any chance winning the title after this,my picks was very poor in the second part of the championship , sorry man......but at least you still have a good chance for P1.

    ReplyDelete
  18. No worries Dragan! You are an excellent TM. Still two more races left to win this thing!

    ReplyDelete