Monday, 5 May 2014

Spain 2014 (Round 5) - F1 Prediction League

Welcome to the Spanish GP - round 5 of the 2014 F1 season!  After a three week break, teams will be hoping their substantial upgrade packages work which will see them climb the grid.

This is a pivotal weekend in many respects both in F1 and the prediction league. If Mercedes retain their dominance the Constructors Championship looks increasingly out of the reach for Red Bull and Ferrari, who both desperately need to start closing the gap.  Not to mention that a lead of 100 points in the Constructors Championship means Mercedes will be banned as a Constructors option, meaning that 'Soft Drinks' company may get a few more picks.


This weekend looks like the first all-dry weekend all season and will be fascinating. The million dollar question is whether any team can make a significant step forward - Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Williams, Force India or Lotus? They're all in the hunt if they can find a good set-up for the weekend.

Reflecting the likelihood of Mercedes dominance a more complicated random has again been devised to keep things interesting.  

As always here is a re-cap of the current standings:







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Random


Thanks to Nat for his help in creating this random and taking part in the random discussion.
  
This time the random involves three separate elements.

As is often the case, the winner of the random will be the player who scores the most points overall. When players are equal on points ties will be decided on the closest random 2 points prediction.



Random 1: The Flying Spaniard
How many places will Alonso gain/lose on the opening lap compared to his starting position?

You guess the number, and then are awarded points based on how close you are e.g.
Spot on: 5 points
1 away: 4 points
2 away: 3 points
3 away: 2 points
4 away: 1 point
5 or more away: 0 points


Random 2: The Mighty Update Package
Predict whether a team will score more, the same or less points than that team's average over the four races so far. You must then predict the amount of points they will score with both cars in Spain.

The rounded average points so far over the four races are:
Mercedes 39 points
Red Bull 14 points
Force India 14 points
Ferrari 13 points
McLaren 11 points
Williams 9 points
Toro Rosso 2 points
Lotus 0 points
Sauber 0 points 

A point will be scored for making the right more/same/less option pick. An additional point will be scored if your point prediction is within two points of the correct pick.

There are only two rules:
  • You have to predict a points score which reflects the more, same or less points pick you originally made. For example you cannot pick Mercedes higher and pick 37 points as 37 points is lower than their average. If you pick the same option e.g. Sauber, you have no option but to pick the point option listed above, in this case 0 points.
  • You must pick a possible points score so 32, 34, 36, 38, 39, 41 and 42 are not options.

Random 3: Super Sector Select
For qualifying, pick one driver for each sector. The aim is to score the lowest overall time using the best sector from the picked drivers from Q1, Q2 or Q3. 

The only rules are that you cannot repeat a driver and you can only use one driver from each team. So you cannot pick: Hamilton, Hamilton, Alonso or Rosberg, Vettel, Ricciardo as they respectively break the two rules above.

Points will be scored based on a scale of 0-10. The best player will score 10 points, the second best player will score 9 points etc. In the event of a tie, both players will score the same amount of points.

For example if position 1 scores 1:24.000, position 2 scores 1:24.000 and position 3 scores 1:24.192. The players who are in P1 and P2 will both score 10 points. P3 will score 8 points.



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Template


Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors:
Random:
Flying Spaniard:

The Mighty Upgrade Package:
Mercedes - H/S/L X points
Red Bull - H/S/L X points
Force India - H/S/L X points
Ferrari - H/S/L X points
McLaren - H/S/L X points
Williams - H/S/L X points
Toro Rosso - H/S/L X points
Lotus - H/S/L X points
Sauber - H/S/L X points
Super Sector Select:
Sector 1:
Sector 2:
Sector 3:


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Last year Alonso won a race dominated by tyre wear - which was both his last win and Massa's last podium. Only Kimi was able to stay within half a minute. This year they're teammates.

A flashback to the prediction league last year shows the Sauber Constructors team (Kiszol and I) claiming a first and only 1-2 for a constructors team since the start. Sangan also featured on the podium. Interestingly last year's podium are now all separated by one point in the 2014 Drivers Championship.

I think I speak for everyone when I say the random category will be extremely decisive this week so good luck!

As always let me know if you have any questions about the above.




26 comments:

  1. Hey Scott,

    Thanks for this! Couple of amendments/clarifications that may be useful.

    For ‘The Mighty Upgrade Package’ – the unavailable points picks (which can’t be scored) are 42, 41, 39, 38, 36, 34, 32.

    Again with random 2 for the current constructors points if we’re rounding up from 0.5 then I got a couple of different ones when I was working it out initially:
    Merc 39
    FI 14
    All depends on whether 0.5 is rounded up or down – I’d have thought up.

    ReplyDelete
  2. No worries. I've made the above modifications to my post. I rounded down on purpose but there are merits to having Force India on 14 rather than 13 so let's run with that.

    I've also made a few wording changes as I seem to have been quite tired when I posted this.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Interesting random..

    Qualifying: Nico Rosberg
    Race: Nico Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 2
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 27 points
    Force India - L 8 points
    Ferrari - H 15 points
    McLaren - L 0 points
    Williams - L 6 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points

    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Nico Rosberg
    Sector 2: Daniel Ricciardo
    Sector 3: Fernando Alonso

    ReplyDelete
  4. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Alonso
    Constructors: Ferrari
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 3
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - L 33 points
    Red Bull - H 20 points
    Force India - L 4 points
    Ferrari - H 33 points
    McLaren - L 3 points
    Williams - L 2 points
    Toro Rosso - L 1 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points

    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Alonso
    Sector 2: Vettel
    Sector 3: Hamilton

    ReplyDelete
  5. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 2
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 40 points
    Red Bull - H 28 points
    Force India - S 14 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 1 points
    Williams - L 2 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hulkenberg
    Sector 2: Hamilton
    Sector 3: Vettel

    ReplyDelete
  6. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard:Gain 1
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 27 points
    Force India - L 6 points
    Ferrari - H 20 points
    McLaren - H 12 points
    Williams - L 8 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - H 1 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1:Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Vettel

    ReplyDelete
  7. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 1
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 22 points
    Force India - S 14 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 3 points
    Williams - L 4 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Rosberg
    Sector 2: Vettel
    Sector 3: Alonso

    ReplyDelete
  8. Qualifying: Hamster
    Race: Hamster
    Constructors: Merc
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 1 place
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 25 points
    Force India - L 8 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 1 points
    Williams - L 6 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - H 2 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Ricciardo

    ReplyDelete
  9. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 1
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 25 points
    Force India - L 6 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 2 points
    Williams - L 5 points
    Toro Rosso - L 1 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Alonso
    Sector 2: Hamilton
    Sector 3: Ricciardo

    ReplyDelete
  10. First, I have quite a few sets of picks to post before posting my own. Aled Lewis:

    Qualifying: Rosberg
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes

    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 2
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 40 points
    Red Bull - H 30 points
    Force India - L 6 points
    Ferrari - H 18 points
    McLaren - L 2 points
    Williams - L 4 points
    Toro Rosso - L 1 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points

    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Massa
    Sector 2: Rosberg
    Sector 3: Alonso

    ReplyDelete
  11. Joe:

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: +2
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H (43pts)
    Red Bull - L (10pts)
    Force India - L (8pts)
    Ferrari - H (20pts)
    McLaren - L (1pt)
    Williams - H (11pts)
    Toro Rosso - S (2pts)
    Lotus - H (2pts)
    Sauber - S (0pts)
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Ricciardo

    ReplyDelete
  12. Rose31:

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: He will gain 2 places.
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 25 points
    Force India - H 14 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 2 points
    Williams - L 7 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1:Hamilton
    Sector 2:Alonso
    Sector 3: Vettel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, Rose clarified FI should be Lower 8 points.

      Delete
  13. Mine:

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes

    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: 0 - no change.
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 25 points
    Force India - L 7 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 2 points
    Williams - L 6 points
    Toro Rosso - L 1 point
    Lotus - H 4 points
    Sauber - S 0 points

    And the quite popular choice of -

    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Ricciardo

    ReplyDelete
  14. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Some modifications, sorry:

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 1
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 21 points
    Force India - L 9 points
    Ferrari - H 15 points
    McLaren - L 7 points
    Williams - L 8 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Vettel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Kiszol, I deleted your first post so I didn't (although unlikely) enter the wrong information into the results workings.

      Good luck!

      Delete
  16. My picks for Spain are

    Qualifying: Lewis Hamilton
    Race: Lewis Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: Gain 1
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes – H 43 points
    Red Bull – H 27 points
    Force India - L 8 points
    Ferrari – H 16 points
    McLaren - L 4 points
    Williams - L 8 points
    Toro Rosso - L 0 points
    Lotus – H 1 point
    Sauber - S 0 points

    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Lewis Hamilton
    Sector 2: Fernando Alonso
    Sector 3: Daniel Ricciardo

    ReplyDelete
  17. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Rosberg
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: + 3
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H - 43points
    Red Bull - H - 22 points
    Force India - L - 10 points
    Ferrari - H - 21 points
    McLaren - L - 0 points
    Williams - L - 8 points
    Toro Rosso - L - 1 points
    Lotus - S - 0 points
    Sauber - S - 0 points
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Ricciardo
    Sector 3: Alonso

    ReplyDelete
  18. Qualifying: Ricciardo
    Race: Vettel
    Constructors: Red Bull

    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: gain 1.
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - L 18 points
    Red Bull - M 45 points
    Force India - L 7 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 0 points
    Williams - L 6 points
    Toro Rosso - L 1 point
    Lotus - H 4 points
    Sauber - H 2 points

    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Ricciardo

    ReplyDelete
  19. Q: Rosberg
    R: ROSBERG.
    CONSTRUCTOR : MERCEDES
    FLYING SPANIARD :lose 1
    Mercedes: 43 H
    Red Bull: 15 L
    Force inda: 7 L
    FERRARI :H 18
    Super sector:
    1) Rosberg
    2 Hamilton
    3) Vettel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey ediglo, in super sector you can only pick one driver from one team so cannot pick both Rosberg and Hamilton.

      Delete
  20. Rajaram picks (sorry for the formatting - I can't change the formatting in this box):

    Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: 2 Positions
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points

    Red Bull - H 25 points

    Force India - L 13 points

    Ferrari - H 15 points

    McLaren - S 11 points

    Williams - H 20 points

    Toro Rosso - L 0 points

    Lotus - H 3 points

    Sauber - S 0 points

    Super Sector Select:

    Sector 1: Hamilton

    Sector 2: Riccardio

    Sector 3: Bottas

    ReplyDelete
  21. Qualifying: Hamilton
    Race: Hamilton
    Constructors: Mercedes
    Random:
    Flying Spaniard: 0 - no change.
    The Mighty Upgrade Package:
    Mercedes - H 43 points
    Red Bull - H 25 points
    Force India - L 7 points
    Ferrari - H 16 points
    McLaren - L 2 points
    Williams - L 6 points
    Toro Rosso - L 1 point
    Lotus - S 0 points
    Sauber - S 0 points

    And the quite popular choice of -
    Super Sector Select:
    Sector 1: Hamilton
    Sector 2: Alonso
    Sector 3: Ricciardo

    Can we the amazing Lotus team pull further ahead in the championship. Hoping so!

    ReplyDelete
  22. All you suckers who picked Mercedes 😋

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We're definitely in trouble especially with Hamilton! He looks very vulnerable.

      Delete