Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Final Championship Results 2014 (and Abu Dhabi results)

The finish to this prediction league championship was akin to some of the F1 championship deciders in the past - unpredictable, crazy and contentious. The points difference was very close and the Red Bull disqualification unfortunately changed the outcome. 

As Sangan and Paul Smith discussed here that the rules in the FAQ state FIA classification is final, which means Red Bull were excluded from the qualifying results. I feel it's a very unfair way for the championship to end and numerous thoughts have crossed my mind about changing the rules etc.

I've taken counsel from Nat, Michael and Sangan himself and while I don't feel good about it, they've all re-iterated that the rules are the rules. Sangan has made it clear he has no intention of accepting the championship as a result of a 'rule change' as he put it.

This underlines his class and Sangan can be incredibly proud of an amazing year - a year where he won twice and finished on the podium seven times. Given the closeness of the battle, I've also given Sangan the opportunity to vet the results and all of my workings and he's happy with everything. 

As a result of a long overdue Nat maiden victory (to go along with 10 other top five finishes) Marussia were catapulted into first place in the Constructors. Admittedly Nat has been a huge part of our success during the year (10-6 head-to-head record against me) and I'd honestly install him as favourite for the prediction league next year, a claim he'd probably deny! Hopefully (somehow) this victory will send positive energy towards Jules and the team in general so they can both recover to good health.

Huge commiserations to Sangan and Dragan, who again fought fantastically throughout the year. Both of you are excellent pickers and would have been worthy champions. It's been a rocky road but I feel your time will come, perhaps next year!

I've published the results like I usually do but if anyone else wants to see their season results etc. and for me to go into more detail, please let me know.

Race Review

The F1 race was reasonably good, about average for this year. Hamilton's superlative start off the line meant Rosberg had a mountain to climb. Unfortunately terminal problems on his car meant his race got progressively impacted but huge respect to him for wanting to finish the race. Mercedes attempted to retire his car before Hamilton lapped him but Nico was having none of it!

Wow. Daniel Ricciardo also put in a scintillating drive to finish 4th from the pitlane. The class difference was evident compared to Vettel who once again was unable to be clinical when it counted. Ricciardo has been phenomenal this year.

In what may have been Button's last race in F1 (a travesty if ever there was one), he excelled and recorded another top five finish. That brings the points total to 126 (compared to Magnussen's 55). I'm a fan of Magnussen but surely an Alonso/Button pairing will bring most success to McLaren-Honda. Ferrari will not be happy with their finish to the season and the prospect of having Vettel and Raikkonen (two drivers who have suffered this year) may be slightly unnerving as they need to deliver a strong car for the two of them to exploit effectively.

I could go on more but want to leave you with the final standings.

Final Championship standings

Podium facts
Nat's maiden win
Aled Lewis' 4th podium of the season and 5th overall

Kim's 3rd podium finish of the season and 8th overall (tied 5th)
Current streaks 

Nat - 11 points finishes (best points streak ever, new record!)
Kiszol - 8 points finishes
Kim - 5 points finishes
Marussia - 16 points finishes
McLaren - 13 points finishes
Ferrari - 10 points finishes
Red Bull - 8 points finishes

Streak ended
Joe - 2 podium finishes (tied 3rd)
Chris Grigson - 6 points finishes

More detailed results


Inputs and random

Random was a complex string of questions and sector times. Note that part 1 for sectors 1 and 2, and one of the other parts was affected by Red Bull's disqualification. See the original Abu Dhabi thread for explanations for each part.

Mid-season categories and stats


Category 1 - risk vs. rewards
Category 2 - position of your driver
Category 3 - teammate domination (see below)
Category 4 - most improved constructors
Category 5 - most improved driver
Category 6 - most podiums
Category 7 - highest average qualifying position

Teammate domination

Most season session points

There will be various posts about the prediction league including stats (last year - player and overall), awards, thoughts about the league this year/next year as well as other analysis soon. Bear with me as the awards in particular take a long time to pull together but are well worth it.

I hope you all enjoyed playing - every last one of you has made it a memorable year. Please feel free to invite friends to play next year.

Well done to Sangan on a great year (and a mini-champs car). Nat was the best player in the second half of the year so he also deserves his prize.

In general I've really enjoyed the league this year, I hope you feel the same - please discuss your feelings as it's always helpful. We'll come back next year and try to make the prediction league even better! It may include a small change to the format and additional input from other people in the league e.g. Michael, as I'm becoming increasingly busy.

One of the best things here is the community. In case you missed Paul Smith in the Abu Dhabi thread, we're going to attempt to organise an hour long webcast with him. The subject. Well, it's Kimi Raikkonen!


  1. Well done!

    The league has been so good this year. Even better than last year.

    I have no issue with the end result! I checked everything hoping there would be a mistake which would give me the title!

    But I can't fault your picking. I noticed I had been lucky. In Australia you picked HAM and me ROS. That should have been a 11 point swing. There were a few other things like that so no issues with the result although I'd take the win under any legitimate reason. I guess luck does go this way and that...

    Sorry to Dragan. We didn't quite do enough as a team but I want to come back and win this thing together next year. I'll work hard over the winter!!

    Haha. I enjoyed the Paul Smith thing at the end. He's a crazy Alonso supporter! What did Kimi ever do to him???

    Great year everybody! See you in 2015...

  2. I claimed I'd score a podium in every race after Australia :s

    I came quite a way short of that! Very prod of the 7 though.

  3. Congrats to my fellow Michael too

    I considered you the main threat throughout the season...Scott sneaked up abit

  4. I am bit disappointed about the mid season swing but realistically from the last race thread I had a horrible feeling I would lose out on a lot of points. Congrats first and foremost to our 5 time champion Scott and to Sangan who with the Red Bull DQ was very unlucky to finish second when we take into account his mid season swing.

    The funny thing Sangan (Michael no 1 this year) is that both you and I were 6th and 5th respectively last year so it looks like we seem to end up in the same place come the seasons end and this year have both made huge strides forward. Also I always felt the championship was a 3 way battle with Scott, myself and yourself. He lurked in third but I made one mistake with Vettel for Japan in qualifying resulting in no points.

    Luck always plays a part in these championships but over the course of the season has averaged out. My only minor regret is Austria where in hindsight it seems obvious Williams would be the second best team that weekend. Overall though 2 wins in a year and consistent top 6's are a great achievement and I look forward to next year. See everybody in 106 days when the Australian GP starts.

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  6. What a dramatic finish! Congrats to all three of you guys for taking it so close. Also to Sangan and Michael for being Rosberg-esque (i.e. very gracious) in defeat and of course to Scott for his phenomenal record and another win. You certainly had to work for it this year!

    Well done everyone who took part and thanks - been a lot of fun. Also a big big thanks to Scott for all his work in running this thing. I've seen how much time, energy and excel genius is required! Really looking forward to next year. Scott, you're right - I'd still make you favourite ;-)

    Great season too I thought (especially as I was hoping Hamilton would win) with lots of good races and a close title fight. What were people's favourite moments?

    Not sure if this is the right place, but it would be awesome to fill up the remaining 'seats' in the League. I think Toro Rosso, Force India and hopefully Caterham/Manor have vacancies, although obviously Scott and myself are without a team at the moment with Marussia's sad issues. Hopefully you guys all come back next year, and certainly tell a friend or two (or three).

    Spoken with Scott and Michael a bit about possible scoring changes for next year. I'd be in favour of reducing race points by one (so maximum 7) and increasing random by one (maximum 5). Reason being that race is the session most susceptible to being influenced by luck e.g. a driver retiring through mechanical issues or being taken out, getting a horrible pit stop etc. In a way qualifying is a purer pick so seems a better balance to have them the same. On the other hand, random this year has been more complex with a number of factors involved in each weekend making it (ironically) the least random category. I probably spend more time (and have more fun) working out random choices than the other three categories. What do you guys think?

  7. "What did Kimi ever do to him???"

    Kimi (The vodka fool) once ignored me and is so overrated by his fans. They always make excuses for him time and time again.

    All I can say is that at least he beat Alonso when Alonso retired or had penalties. 16-0 otherwise. Ferrari must be looking forward to life without Fernando...

    Give Kimi credit though. When he's good he's good but Alonso is probably the best driver ever so he didn't stand a chance.

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  9. Congrats to all, especially to Scott, Sangan and Michael! See you in 2015. :)