Malaysia 2014 - F1 Prediction League

Welcome to round 2 of the F1 prediction league 2014! So we emerge from the first race with plenty of contraversy - mainly around Red Bull and some strange rumours about the FIA limiting the Ferrari power unit. 

Let's not forget that there were some major successes too although there were a large number of unhappy drivers - for many different reasons.

On the successes well done to Magnussen, Button and Rosberg. Malaysia raises some interesting questions - can Rosberg extend his championship lead? Can he beat Hamilton in a fair fight? Can McLaren find a magic half a second like Ron Dennis suggests? And can Red Bull and Ferrari bounce back from mostly disappointing Australia weekends?

As always here is a re-cap from the standings from the first race:

The season is still young so expect major changes after the next race. Saying that in the previous four seasons the leader after the first race has won the championship twice.

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Random

Many called for more complicated randoms, akin to Brazil 2013. I agree so here is one for you. I'm breaking the track into the three different sectors, for each there will be a different theme. 

 
Sector 1

Which driver will qualify the highest and lowest on the grid out of the following choices: Vettel, Ricciardo, Alonso, Raikkonen, Button, Magnussen, Hulkenberg, Perez, Massa, Bottas?
Also which driver will qualify the highest and lowest on the grid out of the following choices: Hamilton (4 second penalty on best time), Rosberg (4 second penalty on best time), Grosjean, Maldonado, Sutil, Gutierrez, Vergne, Kvyat, Chilton, Bianchi, Kobayashi?

Sector 2

Which team will run the longest race stint? (laps) - ties will be decided by whichever team pits earlier.

Sector 3

Which driver will have the highest speed through the speed trap in qualifying?
Which driver will have the lowest (highest*) speed through the speed trap in qualifying?

* F1.com will record the best speed through the speed trap in the session so it's not the lowest speed at any point, it's the lowest best speed.

Scoring

Points will be scored for each sector based on the real F1 points - 25 points for the best pick, 18 for second etc. Each category within a category is worth a 25 point maximum. So sector 1 is worth 100 points, sector 2 worth 25 points and sector 3 worth 50 points.

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Template

Feel free to post picks in the following format:

Qualifying: 
Race: 
Constructors:
Random:

Sector 1
Highest -
Lowest -

Highest - 
Lowest - 

Sector 2 -

Sector 3
Fastest - 
Slowest - 

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Good luck everyone. Let's hope for an exciting race with plenty of action and a fiercely contested battle for the lead! 

And don't forget... 

Australia 2014 Results and Championship

A thrilling start to the championship with Kiszol starting the season in style! After winning the 2013 season finale, Kiszol moved from Sauber (the Constructors Champions) to Red Bull and showed it wasn't just the car. This victory was pretty dominant and represents Kiszol's fourth PL win (the highest of any player).

This win was made to look easy, just like Rosberg's steps to glory courtesy of Hamilton's retirement. This event took almost 50% of the players out of contention for the win. A few others predicted Raikkonen (Joe and Chris) or Massa (Brian) to win, which equally merited no points. The only other race scorer was Alonso (Paul Smith and Aled Lewis) who finished a steady fourth.

Well done to Sangan and MetalGatherer who occupy the other podium spots after successfully picking Rosberg.

It's clear from the first race that Mercedes start the season in a majorly strong position. Williams wasted a golden opportunity and will head to Malaysia with hopes of making the podium. 

In the F1 PL Constructors Championship Lotus and Red Bull have defied the real F1 season and line up in first and second positions. Lotus were runners up last year and will be hoping to finally claim the grand prize!

Championship Standings

Constructors Championship

 

 

  

  Read on for more detail. 

F1 Prediction League 2014

Welcome to the fifth year of the F1 Prediction League! Following on from the success of last year where 17 players competed across 20 rounds of the F1 2013 season, the league will run again!

Welcome back to all the old players but also welcome to any new perspective players. The league will run to a maximum of 22 players in line with the current grid, with each player assigned a constructors team to race for. This led to an incredibly interesting constructors championship with 1st and 3rd in the league leading Sauber to the championship!

Last year the winner of the competition received a 2013 Sebastian Vettel Mini Champs model. A similar prize will be on offer with the winner of the F1 2014 Prediction League receiving a Mini Champs model of the 2014 World Champion. There will also be a chance to win £30 of Amazon vouchers later in the year.

The league gives you the chance to show off your knowledge and intuition by making picks on:

1. Four categories every race weekend (Maximum 25 points each race) 
2. Season results (Maximum 50 points) 
3. Mid-season categories (Maximum 25 points)

 See below for further details.

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Race Weekend Picks

Every weekend there will be a chance to pick on four categories - three are similar every week with one changing.

Categories

1. Pole Position (Maximum 7 points)
2. Race Winner (Maximum 8 points)
3. Constructors who scores the most points (Maximum 6 points)
4. Random category (will change every race weekend) (Maximum 4 points)

Based on feedback last year the random category has increased from 3 points to 4 and qualifying has been decreased to 7. 

Ahead of each race weekend I will post a thread (usually 3-5 days ahead of FP1) with the random category for the next race. 

You'll then be able to post a comment on the thread or send an email with your picks (I'll post all emailed picks after the deadline for full visibility).

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The allocation of points for the four categories is:

Pole Position

1st – 7 points

2nd – 5 points

3rd – 3 points

4th – 2 points

5th – 1 point

Race Winner

1st – 8 points

2nd – 5 points

3rd – 3 points

4th – 2 points

5th – 1 point

Constructors

1st – 6 points

2nd – 3 points

3rd – 1 point

Random

1st – 4 points

2nd and 3rd – 3 points

4th, 5th and 6th  – 2 points
7th, 8th, 9th and 10th - 1 point

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Season Picks

These are picks which relate to results over the course of the entire season. You only need to make these once, the deadline is Thursday 13th March 2014 (23:59 GMT).

Summary

1. Drivers Championship - Max. 12 points
2. Constructors Championship - Max. 6 points
3. Most season session points - Max. 4 points
4. Driver vs. Driver - Max. 11 points
5. Team vs. Team - Max. 5 points
6. Most Team Retirements - Max. 3 points
7. Least Team Retirements - Max. 3 points
8. Random Categories - Max. 6 points

Total - Maximum 50 points

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Drivers Championship

Pick who you think will finish in the top three positions in the drivers championship.

1st 

2nd

3rd

Constructors Championship

Pick who you think will finish in the first three constructors positions, receive the points below for their final position in the constructors world championship.

1st 

2nd

3rd

Most Season Session Points

For every session (practice 1, P2, P3, qualifying and the race) everyone in the top ten scores points like in races (1st = 25, 2nd = 18, 3rd = 15 etc.). This also applies to the fastest lap so there are six categories overall. 

If Alonso finishes in the following positions across the weekend (P1 - 1st, P2 - 2nd, P3 - 1st, Qualifying - 4th, Race - 1st, Fastest Lap - 2nd) then he'll score 123 points (25 + 18 + 25 + 12 + 25 + 18). These points will be added to points from every other weekend in the season and the driver at the end of the season with the most points wins. Qualifying has been grouped as one session per F1 rules. 

1st - 4 points

2nd - 2 points

3rd - 1 point

Driver vs. Driver

Which teammate will score the most points in the championship standings, ties will be decided by the placing in the world championship standings (For example: http://www.formula1.com/results/driver/).

Alonso or Raikkonen? (1 point)

Hamilton or Rosberg? (1 point)

Bottas or Massa? (1 point)

Button or Magnussen? (1 point)

Vergne or Kyvat? (1 point)
Sutil or Gutierrez? (1 point)

Grosjean or Maldonado? (1 point)

Hulkenberg or Perez? (1 point)

Vettel or Ricciardo? (1 point)
Bianchi or Chilton? (1 point)

Kobayashi or Ericsson? (1 point)

Team vs. Team

Which team will score the most points in the championship standings, ties will be decided by the placing in the world championship standings (For example: http://www.formula1.com/results/team/)

Ferrari or Red Bull? (1 point)

McLaren or Williams? (1 point)

Force India or Lotus? (1 point)

Sauber or Toro Rosso? (1 point)

Marussia or Caterham? (1 point)

Most Retirements

Pick which team will have the most retirements, this includes any result where one of the team's drivers either aren't classified or have a reason stated for retirement (i.e. not finishing the required race distance). F1.com used as the decider.

1st - 2 points

2nd - 1 point

An extra bonus point will be earned if you pick the driver who will retire the most from that team.

Least team retirements

Pick which team will have the least retirements, this includes any result where one of the team's drivers either aren't classified or have a reason stated for retirement (i.e. not finishing the required race distance). F1.com used as the decider.

1st - 2 points
2nd - 1 point

An extra bonus point will be earned if you pick the driver who will retire the least from that team.

Random Categories

A few random yes or no questions for variety!

1. Given Mercedes strong testing performance will Mercedes powered cars have the least total engine retirements throughout the year?
2. Will we have a new race winner in 2014? (Current winners: Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Rosberg, Massa, Button, Maldonado)
3. Given the introduction of double points at the last race will the championship go down to the final race?
4. Will any driver score points at 15 or more races this year?
5. Will four different teams win races in 2014?
6. Will Marussia or Caterham finish in the top 13 in any race?

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How to get involved

Post your picks in the comments section here or email me here.

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The two templates are here: 

Race Weekend

The Random category for Australia is which teammates will finish closest throughout the weekend? 

This is based across the three categories - qualifying, race, fastest lap. Drivers will score 1 point if they finish next to their teammates, 2 points if they finish two places away etc. 

The overall winner will be the team which scores the least points across the three categories. As discussed above the player who makes the best pick will score 4 points, 2nd and 3rd will score 3 points etc. 

Tie-breaks are resolved by the player who picks the closest average position for their teammates. For example if one player picks Button/Magnussen and another picks Rosberg/Hamilton. If Button/Magnussen finish 7/8 7/8 7/8 and Rosberg/Hamilton finish 1/2 1/2 1/2, both teams score 3 points. Then it would come down to what the picked average position was. If the first player picked 4th for Button/Magnussen and the second player picked 2nd for Rosberg/Hamilton then the second player would win as 1.5 is closer to 2 than 7.5 to 4.

People should post their picks in the following format:

Pole: Rosberg

Race: Vettel

Constructors: Caterham

Random: Alonso/Raikkonen (average position: X)

Season Picks

World championship
1st –
2nd –
3rd –

Constructors Championship
1st – 
2nd –
3rd –

Most season session points:

1st -

Driver v. Driver:

Alonso/Raikkonen
Hamilton/Rosberg

Bottas/Massa

Button/Magnussen 

Vergne/Kyvat
Sutil/Gutierrez

Grosjean/Maldonado

Hulkenberg/Perez

Vettel/Ricciardo
Bianchi/Chilton

Kobayashi/Ericsson

Team v. Team

Ferrari/Red Bull

McLaren/Williams

Force India/Lotus

Sauber/Toro Rosso

Marussia/Caterham

Most team retirements:

Driver in that team who will retire the most:

Least team retirements:

Driver in that team who will retire the least:

Random categories:

Given Mercedes strong testing performance will they be the engine with the least engine retirements throughout the year? (Yes/No)

Will we have a new winner in 2014? (Yes/No)

Given the introduction of double points at the last race will the championship go down to the final race? (Yes/No)

Will one driver score points at 15 or more races this year? (Yes/No)

Will four different teams win races in 2014? (Yes/No)

Will Marussia or Caterham finish in the top 13 in any race? (Yes/No)

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The deadline for submission for both the first race and the season picks is Thursday 13th March 23:59 GMT. It's important that people post before practice 1. Any picks posted after the start of practice 1 will limited to 50% of the points on offer. Any picks made on Saturday or Sunday will not count.

After every race weekend I will post results quickly so on the Sunday or Monday. As always there is a one hour window of change once you have picked. After that window your picks cannot be changed.

If you're a new poster please state which team you'd like to race for. There's still a place free at Sauber, Force India and two places at Toro Rosso, Caterham and Marussia. Please see full line-up at Driver Speculation. One last thing, good luck!

F1 Prediction League - Awards 2013

And the winner of the £30 Amazon voucher is...Kim! It was a close run thing with Kiszol only one point behind and Michael only three points behind. All I can say is well done to Kim on a fantastic season!

Thanks to everyone for playing this year! It's been a lot of fun and I hope you come back for 2014.

2014 Discussion

Please have a look at this page (on the tab at the top of the site) - I decided against posting a survey as I would love for people to have a discussion about the changes we should make to the league next year, so please free to comment!

2013 Statistics

Also please see the following threads for 2013 stats and individual player stats. 

Awards

Moving onto the awards, which cover the ten categories announced earlier as well as a few more. Everyone has excelled in one way or another and I wanted to acknowlege it here. First I need to thank Michael for his help in defining the criteria behind the awards - this helped to make sure the whole process was as objective as possible. 

Best Qualifying Pick

1^st Rajaram (Rosberg at Brazil)

An inspired pick which allowed Rajaram to become the best qualifying picker of the season (jumping clear from Michael and Kim onto 113 points). Few guessed that Mercedes would have a chance to outqualify the peerless Red Bull. Perhaps it was the threat of rain which prompted the pick, perhaps there was some other insight. Regardless the stakes were high especially with third up for grabs in the championship and although third wasn't achieved, the pick still paid off as Rajaram defended fourth place.

2^nd Kiszol (Hamilton at China)

Kiszol was one of the first to take a risk on Hamilton early on in the season with the vast majority picking Vettel for China (after Australia and Malaysia). The beauty of this pick was Hamilton's former superiority in China was overlooked by others while the 0.3 second margin of victory made this pick even more satisfying.

3^rd Ediglo (Webber at Japan)

Ediglo was the only player to pick Webber for Japan, with everybody else sticking with Vettel. This pick turned out well after KERS problems for Vettel, which led to Webber outqualifying his teammate for the first time in the season. This race did spell the start of a succession of races where Webber challenged Vettel for pole so perhaps this was a bit prophetic.

F1 Prediction League Stats - 2013

This is a summary of F1 prediction league 2013 statistics. 

See this post here for individual player stats.

Player stats - 2013

Ordered by championship position.

Final Championship Standings 2013 and Brazil Results

So here it is - the end of the 2013 season. It's been a lot of fun running the league, I hope you feel the same way about playing it. There's been some stand-out picks throughout the season, which I've really enjoyed seeing, and I'm happy we agreed to ban Vettel. It improved the league immeasurably towards the end.

I'm planning on releasing an awards thread next weekend (check back Sunday PM), where the winner of the £30 amazon voucher will be announced. However congratulations to Kim who won the 2013 Vettel mini-champs car for finishing 1st/2nd in the Drivers Championship.

I'm also in the process of creating a survey, where you can comment on the F1 prediction league in general and areas for improvement. I'll post that link, as well as fully completed statistics for the 2013 season, when the awards thread is posted.

Any way on to the real stuff, Kiszol has won their third race of the season - meaning Sauber now have six wins and a 109 point lead in the constructors championship. It's been incredible from my perspective to work with Kiszol and I wish them well with their Red Bull drive.

For other teams it's been very intense between 2nd and 5th place. McLaren just edged the battle, scoring 92 points in the last four races. It was a shame for the Lotus team, as both players have picked fantastically all year. However congratulations to both McLaren drivers. As both teams remain the same in 2014, they can have a have a rematch!

So here are the final standings:

  

Constructors Championship
 
For constructors, so not to disadvantage teams with only one driver (or to protect against someone who doesn't post), players will score points in line with race finishes. See the overall results below, Kiszol will score 25 points for their 1st place this weekend. This is different to how the drivers championship will be scored. If players are tied they will be separated by the following criteria: Race > Constructors > Qualifying > Random > The time of the pick (earlier the better).
 

The podium was as follows (see post for further results)