Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Korea - F1 Prediction League (Round 14)

Korea is usually a Vettel stronghold with victories in the last two years, as well as leading the vast majority of the race in 2010. Only a mechanical failure denied him a win which would have earned him the title earlier in the season.

There are two major decision points for this thread, the first is the more complicated random category. This is to make up for the potential predictability of the other three categories. The random category will also be more important in deciding constructors points (replacing time posted as the fifth decider). The second main point is the Vettel ban situation, please read through the thread and post your preference with your picks.

Hopefully we can work out the best solution for everyone. I look forward to hearing your input.
 
To refresh your memories, here's a quick round-up of the standings so far:
 
 
 
 
For other F1 prediction league articles, please go to: http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/p/blog-page.html
Also see the driver speculation 2014 page for constructors offers etc.
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Random Category for Korea


Which drivers will be the fastest and slowest in the following sessions?

  

As stated pick the driver who will set the fastest lap in the listed session as well as the driver who will set the slowest fastest lap in that session. 

 
3 points will be awarded for a correct pick, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd and 0 points for last. Therefore the highest possible score is 30 points (scoring 2 sets of 3 points for all five 5 categories)
 
e.g.
 
If my picks for practice 1 are: fastest - Van der Garde, slowest - Pic, if the order is actually Pic, Van der Garde, Chilton, Bianchi. I will score 2 points for Van der Garde (as he is second quickest) and 0 points for Pic (as he was the fastest in the session where I predicted he would be the slowest).
 
If players are tied on overall points, the decision will be made on countback (i.e. most correct picks, then most 2nds etc.). If players are tied in all categories, time of posting will be the decider.
 
Points will be allocated on the following basis:
 
Best picker: 3 points
2nd and 3rd: 2 points
4th, 5th and 6th: 1 point

Note: if there is an overall tie on weekend points (qualifying, race, constructors and random) and the usual method of race > constructors > qualifying > random cannot settle the difference, constructors points will be decided on random score (the number out of 30). Usually the next decider is on time posted but if there is a tie overall random will be more important in deciding what points to allocate.
 
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Ban Vettel? (please read and vote)

 
First off, I want to post statistics with Vettel and without Vettel. I want to focus on the last five races as this was when the tyre change came into play in Hungary. Since then the championship has heavily gone towards both Vettel and Red Bull.
 

Qualifying

 
 
The last five races are the crucial measure. In qualifying Vettel tops the tables as you would expect.  It's worth pointing out that Vettel's dominance would be even stronger had he not made a mistake on his fastest Hungary lap and if it hadn't rained in Belgium/Spa, gifting Hamilton a chance at pole which he didn't have in the dry. If these two results had happened the other way around Vettel's 6 point lead extends to an 18 point advantage over five races. It does seem that Hamilton wields a healthy advantage over the other drivers with Vettel in though.
The advantage is a bit less clear when Vettel is taken out. Mark Webber's biggest competitor is his teammate, he's 13-0 down in qualifying. Against other competitors Webber is far stronger which means he's a lot closer to Hamilton with Vettel removed. With the resurgence of Red Bull (and their obvious superiority at most tracks), qualifying as a category is, in my opinion, more competitive without Vettel in than with him in. Vettel seemed to have a 0.4-0.8 second advantage in qualifying trim over other cars in Monza and Singapore. Perhaps my opinion will change if Hamilton out-qualifies Vettel in Korea however I personally feel that is pretty unlikely.
 

Race

 
Vettel has been absolutely dominant in the last five races as well as over the course of the season, scoring 94% and 51% more points respectively than his nearest competitor Alonso. Excluding Vettel will obviously make this category more unpredictable and exciting. This is especially true as Alonso rarely seems to finish second from high up on the grid. He was also lucky in races such as Singapore with the safety car.
Without Vettel Alonso's superiority is further emphasised due to his numerous second places. As above it's worth pointing out that these results are skewed due to his strong result in Singapore which was rather lucky. He was probably going to be behind Grosjean, Hamilton and Rosberg at least without the safety car. Obviously again there are four pretty likely picks if we exclude Vettel, arguably only one logical pick if we keep him in.
 

Constructors



Red Bull have been utterly dominant in the last five races, scoring over 118% more points than Ferrari. This to me means it's advisable to ban Red Bull as well if we're considering banning Vettel due to his strength. The points for Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus are all close especially if we consider how lucky Ferrari were in Singapore due to the safety car and Webber's retirement.
 
Overall I believe we should ban all Vettel and Red Bull picks unless specifically allowed in random. I've given the raw stats above. Everyone is allowed their own opinion so please feel free to make your own suggestions/comments.
 
With your own post please post your most favoured solution to least favoured solution:
 
Ban Vettel from Race
Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
No Ban
Other Ban - please explain and give reason (only relevant if you have an alternative option)
 
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Post your picks in the following format -
 
Qualifying: 
Race:
Constructors:

Random:
P1: (fastest), (slowest)
P2:
P3:
Q:
R:

Ban Vettel? (see above for five potential options)
- Most favoured option
- 2nd most favoured option
- 3rd most favoured option
- 4th most favoured option
- 5th most favoured option (if relevant)
 

Please feel free to give your reasons why you've made your Vettel decision as well, it may persuade other players to see your side of the story. We'll then try to work out the most effective compromise for everyone.

 
The deadline for Korea picks is Friday 4th October 02:00 GMT (before FP1). Effectively pick on Thursday to be safe.
 
Good luck!

21 comments:

  1. Qualifying: Vettel
    Race: Webber
    Constructors: Red Bull

    Random:
    P1: VDG, Pic
    P2: Ricciardo, Bottas
    P3: Hulk, Sutil
    Q: Massa, Button
    R: Hamilton, Raikkonen

    Ban Vettel? (see above for five potential options)
    - Other: Ban the winner of this race from the next race. Upshot is you can't pick the same winner twice in a row. Leave Quali as it is.
    - No Ban
    - Ban Vettel from Race
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'd prefer to leave the Vettel ban thing out for now, maybe experiment for one or two races (and practice and quali) to see how it goes. Maybe a new rule for the full season next year if we think it's going to be repetitive: ban the previous race winner. Or ban the current overall points leader.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Qualifying: Sebastian Vettel
    Race: Sebastian Vettel
    Constructors: Ferrari

    Random
    P1: Pic, Chilton
    P2: Ricciardo, Maldonado
    P3: Gutierrez, Di Resta
    Q: Massa, Button
    R: Raikkonen, Hamilton

    Ban Vettel
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    - Ban Vettel from Race
    - Other Ban (N/A)
    - No Ban

    I'm happy to wait until after Korea to decide because if Vettel has an easy pole to flag finish then I think all three should probably be banned. I want to not pick Vettel but easy to lose going against him. He never has any weak races.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Just a quick point, if a driver does not take part in a session but a replacement driver does i.e. in free practice. Then the replacement driver will take the place of the selected driver.

    e.g. if Chilton does not take part in FP1, but Heidfeld and Bianchi do then Heidfeld will take his place.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Aled Lewis posted:

    Qualifying: Sebastian Vettel
    Race: Sebastian Vettel
    Constructors: Mercedes

    Random
    P1: Van der Garde, Chilton
    P2: Ricciardo, Bottas
    P3: Sutil, Gutierrez
    Q: Massa, Perez
    R: Rosberg, Raikkonen

    Ban Vettel
    - Ban Vettel from Race
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    - No Ban

    Joe posted:

    Qualifying - Vettel
    Race - Vettel
    Constructors - Red Bull
    Random P1 - Fastest: VDG, Slowest: Chilton
    Random P2 - Fastest: Ricciardo, Slowest: Bottas
    Random P3 - Fastest: Hulkenberg, Slowest: Guttierez
    Random Q - Fastest: Grosjean, Slowest: Perez
    Random Race - Fastest: Rosberg, Slowest: Alonso

    Ban Vettel Preferences:

    1. No Ban
    2. Ban Vettel from the Race
    3. Other: Ban Vettel from Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    4. Other: Ban Vettel from Race, and Vettel and Hamilton from Qualifying
    5. Ban Vettel from Race and Qualifying
    6. Other: Ban Vettel from Race, Vettel and Hamilton from Qualifying, and Red Bull from Constructors
    7. Ban Vettel from Race and Qualifying, and Red Bull from Constructors

    ReplyDelete
  6. Qualifying - Vettel
    Race - Vettel
    Constructors - Red Bull

    Random P1 - Fastest: Pic, Slowest: Chilton
    Random P2 - Fastest: Vergne, Slowest: Bottas
    Random P3 - Fastest: Hulkenberg, Slowest: Di Resta
    Random Q - Fastest: Grosjean, Slowest: Perez
    Random Race - Fastest: Alonso, Slowest: Rosberg

    Vettel Ban Preferences:
    1. Ban Vettel from race and Red Bull from Constructors – this is because I think the following rule should be applied: a driver is banned from race when they have a 50 point lead in the championship and a constructors team should be banned when they have a 100 point lead in the championship, for the rest of the season (unless the lead falls to under 25 points and 50 points respectively - This is a clear and transparent guideline going forward as well).
    2. Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race, and Red Bull from Constructors (as above after consideration I don't think Vettel deserves to be banned from qualifying yet so I suggest the same rule as above but with a qualifying table being drawn up where a lead of over 50 points means a ban too. It's incredibly easy to do for me. Currently Vettel has 244 points, Hamilton 228, Rosberg 183, Webber 137, therefore no ban for Vettel.)
    3. Ban Vettel from Race
    4. No ban

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I said my overall concern is with making the league both fun and fair/transparent. I think it's important to have trigger criteria for banning a driver.

      Delete
    2. Qualifying - Vettel
      Race - Vettel
      Constructors - Red Bull

      Random P1 - Fastest: Pic, Slowest: Bianchi
      Random P2 - Fastest: Vergne, Slowest: Bottas
      Random P3 - Fastest: Hulkenberg, Slowest: Di Resta
      Random Q - Fastest: Grosjean, Slowest: Button
      Random Race - Fastest: Raikkonen, Slowest: Rosberg

      Same as above (Scott). I think this seems to be pretty fair! 50 points is probably enough to decide one driver is too dominant. Has anyone ever won the championship that far back? Same opinions for Q. Different qualifying table is the fairest way. A driver who always wins won't necessarily always qualify first!

      I think qualifying isn't completely decided before although maybe it will turn out that way.

      Delete
    3. I've chosen 50 points (and by extension 100 points) as quite a few drivers have stated 50 points is almost like the no coming back from gap.

      I'm happy to adapt the 100 points for constructors to something a bit lower like 75 points. What do people think of the system and the possible size of lead to implement it?

      Delete
  7. Qualifying: Vettel
    Race: Vettel
    Constructors: Red Bull

    Random:
    P1: Pic, Chilton
    P2: Vergne, Bottas
    P3: Gutierrez, Di Resta
    Q: Grosjean, Perez
    R: Alonso, Hamilton

    Tbh I'm happy with the above. Don't think we should ban Vettel from Quali yet but would like to see no Vettel race or Red Bull picks.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Qualifying: Vettel
    Race: Vettel
    Constructors: Mercedes

    Random:
    P1: VDG, Chilton
    P2: Ricciardo, Maldonado
    P3: Hülkenberg, Di Resta
    Q: Grosjean, Perez
    R: Hamilton, Raikkönen

    Ban Vettel?

    1a - My idea: No direct ban, but maximaze the race points for every driver and constructor as the sum of 3 and the WDC/WCC rank at the moment for the given driver/constructor. We can use this system for qualification as well with the "qualification WDC". E. g. for this race Vettel could score 4 points maximum (if he finishes 1st or 2nd). If he finishes in a lower position, his points won't be changed. Raikkönen's maximum points are 6 for the race, but he can "earn" 10 for the qual if he grabs the pole. The other possibility is that the current maximum points will remain limiters, so Kimi would get 8 for third, and the same 8 points even if he reaches the front row.

    1b - A simpler way to do this is the following: we reduce the points of the top3 in the championship standings by 4/2/1 respectively for Q and R, and by 3/2/1 for C. So if Vettel and the Red Bull scores a perfect weekend, one can score (8-4) + (8-4) + (6-3) = 11 points with a Vettel/Vettel/RBR prediction, while one can score (5-1) + (5-0) + (3-0) = 12 points with a Rosberg/Hamilton/Lotus guess, if Rosberg finishes second in Q while Hamilton finishes second in the race and the Lotus guys are 3rd+6th (Rosberg DNF, Webber DNF). I hope it's clear but I'm not sure it is :)
    (2 - Ban Vettel from Race and Red Bull from Constructors (though there weren't such option))
    3 - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    4 - Ban Vettel from Race
    5 - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    6 - No Ban

    ReplyDelete
  10. My Picks for Korea
    Qualifying: Sebastian Vettel
    Race: Sebastian Vettel
    Constructors: Red Bull
    Random: P1- Fastest: Gio Van Der Garde, Slowest: Max Chilton

    Sebastian Vettel Ban Preferences:
    1. Ban Sebastian Vettel from Race and Red Bull from constructors
    2. Ban Sebastian Vettel from Race
    Random: P2- Fastest: Daniel Ricciardo, Slowest: Valtteri Bottas
    Random: P3- Fastest: Nico Hulkenberg, Slowest: Adrian Sutil
    Random: Qualifying- Fastest: Roman Grosjean, Slowest: Sergio Perez
    Random: Race-Fastest: Fernando Alonso, Slowest: Nico Rosberg

    1. Ban Vettel from Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    2. Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    3. Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    4. Ban Vettel from race
    5. An alternative system of picking the top 3 for race
    6. No Ban

    Overall I prefer the simplicity of the current system and do not want to create extra work for Scott. Incidently thank you Scott for running the league as it must take up a decent portion of your free time

    ReplyDelete
  11. Qualifying: Vettel
    Race: Vettel
    Constructors: Ferrari

    Random:
    P1: VDG, Chilton
    P2: Riccardo, Bottas
    P3: Hulkenberg, Di Resta
    Q: Grosjean, Perez
    R: Hamilton, Raikönnen

    Ban Vettel?
    I wouldn't like to form an opinion on this one yet, as I'm new to the league. :)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Qualifying - Vettel
    Race - Vettel
    Constructors - Mercedes

    Random P1 - Fastest: Pic, Slowest: Chilton
    Random P2 - Fastest: Vergne, Slowest: Maldonado
    Random P3 - Fastest: Sutil, Slowest: Gutierrez
    Random Q - Fastest: Grosjean, Slowest: Perez
    Random Race - Fastest: Hamilton, Slowest:Raikkonen

    Ban Vettel
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    - Ban Vettel from Race
    - Other Ban (N/A)
    - No Ban

    ReplyDelete
  13. Qualifying - Vettel
    Race - Vettel
    Constructors - Ferrari

    Random P1 - Fastest: Van der Garde, Slowest: Chilton
    Random P2 - Fastest: Ricciardo, Slowest:Bottas
    Random P3 - Fastest: Hulkenberg, Slowest: Di Resta
    Random Q - Fastest: Grosjean, Slowest: Perez
    Random Race - Fastest: Hamilton, Slowest: Raikkonen

    Ban Vettel
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors
    - Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race
    - Ban Vettel from Race
    - Other Ban (N/A)
    - No Ban

    Feel like I'm shooting myself in the foot as Vettel's been kind of my golden goose but I think we'll have some more fun without a clear favourite - I'm for a ban :-)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Rajaram picked:

    Qualifying : vettel
    Race : vettel
    Constructors : Ferrari
    Random :
    P1 : Fastest - Bianchi Slowest - Pic
    P2 : Fastest - Riccardio Slowest - Maladano
    P3 : Fastest - DiResta Slowest - Gutierrez
    Qual : Fastest - Grosjean Slowest - Perez
    Race : Fastest - Alonso Slowest - Hamilton

    Ban on Vettel :

    Ban on Vettel since its too predictable at top. Constructors we can keep it for time being.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Still waiting on Ediglo and Jasper94. Fingers crossed they make it.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Helo Scott, my picks:

    Qualifying: Hamilton.
    Race: Alonso.
    Constructor: Ferrari.
    Random:
    P1: No pick I´m late.
    P2: Fast: Sutil, Slow: Gutierrez.
    P3: Fast: Maldonado, Slow: Bottas.]
    Q: Fast: Massa, Slow: Grosjean.
    R: Fast: Alonso, Slow: Raikonnen

    Sorry the delay!

    ReplyDelete
  17. my vote: Ban Vettel from Qualifying and Race and Red Bull from Constructors

    ReplyDelete